A Multicriteria Decision Analysis With Fuzzy-AHP of Renewable Energy Pathways for Green Hydrogen Production in Remote Egyptian Regions

The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a global priority to combat climate change, energy insecurity, and environmental degradation, with green hydrogen from renewable sources emerging as a promising and carbon-free energy carrier. This study presents a comprehensive technoeconomic and environmental assessment of renewable energy–based hydrogen production systems, focusing on the coastal region of Marsa Matrouh, Egypt. In this regard, a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (F-AHP) integrated with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is applied using four key criteria: commercial potential of hydrogen production, environmental impact of carbon dioxide (CO₂) mitigation, economic benefit, and social acceptance. Also, the photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and alkaline (ALK) electrolysis are effectively modeled using their first-order energy balance equations to estimate electricity and hydrogen output. The modeling approach is implemented via MATLAB simulation using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) climate data of hourly solar radiation, temperature, and wind speed data to estimate energy output, hydrogen yield, and the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). A case study is conducted in Marsa Matrouh, Egypt, to assess the technical and economic viability of five distinct scenarios: (SC₁) 100% PV, (SC₂) 100% WT, (SC₃) 50% PV + 50% WT, (SC₄) 70% PV + 30% WT, and (SC₅) 30% PV + 70% WT. Results show that the 100% wind scenario (SC₂) is optimal, delivering the highest annual energy (2417 MW h), hydrogen output (36 tons), CO₂ mitigation (769 tons/year), and the lowest LCOH ($2.66/kg), with the highest F-AHP score (0.5360). These findings highlight the strategic value of wind energy for large-scale hydrogen production and support Egypt’s Vision 2030 for green energy transformation.