Decision models for minigrid implementation: Emerging role beyond clean energy access - evidence from India with global relevance

Access to reliable and sustainable electricity remains a critical challenge in regions marked by socio-economic disparities and geographic constraints, exacerbating energy access inequities. Minigrids and microgrids (MGs) emerge as a promising renewable energy solution, bridging the gap in clean energy access while fostering economic development. However, implementing MGs faces significant challenges related to regulations, financing, and socio-economic factors.

This study examines the development of MGs in India, focusing on how evolving regulatory frameworks, socio-economic conditions, and geo-spatial factors influence deployment decisions. The analytical framework developed offers insights adaptable to electricity access planning in other resource-constrained and geographically challenging contexts, thereby extending the research's global relevance. A geo-spatial analysis of 942 public MGs implemented across seven states was conducted, examining variables such as population density, proximity to existing grids, land use, irrigation patterns, and accessibility. Detailed insights were further derived from 610 previously unelectrified villages in Jharkhand, analysing deployment decisions based on socio-economic and geo-spatial parameters. A decision-tree classification model was developed to examine the selection of electrification strategies, including MGs, stand-alone solar systems, or deferred electrification. The findings highlight that MGs have been particularly deployed in challenging terrains, such as flood-prone, forested, and high-altitude areas, where grid extension may be techno-commercially impractical. Sparse population regions necessitate customized MG solutions, while villages with poor road connectivity and greater distances from electricity networks exhibit higher adoption rates of MGs. This study offers evidence-based recommendations for MG deployment and regulatory reforms ensuring non-discrimination and operationalize a USO fund awarding VGF via competitive bidding.