{"title":"城市旅游区流行病的时空扩散：客流与病毒传播模型","authors":"Luzheng Lu, Junyi Li, Xiping Yang, Yanyan Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s12061-025-09730-x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>COVID-19 has significantly impacted the global community, with tourism exacerbating its spread. However, research on tourism’s contribution to epidemic diffusion is scarce. Here, we integrate interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary knowledge to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic diffusion model for urban tourist areas based on tourist flow and virus contact transmission rules between individuals. We simulate the spatiotemporal virus spread process in tourists at the city scale. The research reveals that heavily-visited small tourist areas are the primary areas for virus transmission. Even small scenic areas with low visitation rates experienced virus transmission after more than one day of latency. For COVID-19, tourist input viruses are likely to cause transmission in sightseeing areas. However, whether the virus spreads uncontrollably among tourists depends on the city’s reception quantity. Furthermore, spatiotemporal attribute datasets can assist authorities in evaluating infection risks to adopt targeted strategies based on local natural, economic, and social characteristics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46392,"journal":{"name":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Spatiotemporal Epidemic Diffusion in Urban Tourist Areas: Modelling Tourist Flow and Virus Spread\",\"authors\":\"Luzheng Lu, Junyi Li, Xiping Yang, Yanyan Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s12061-025-09730-x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>COVID-19 has significantly impacted the global community, with tourism exacerbating its spread. However, research on tourism’s contribution to epidemic diffusion is scarce. Here, we integrate interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary knowledge to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic diffusion model for urban tourist areas based on tourist flow and virus contact transmission rules between individuals. We simulate the spatiotemporal virus spread process in tourists at the city scale. The research reveals that heavily-visited small tourist areas are the primary areas for virus transmission. Even small scenic areas with low visitation rates experienced virus transmission after more than one day of latency. For COVID-19, tourist input viruses are likely to cause transmission in sightseeing areas. However, whether the virus spreads uncontrollably among tourists depends on the city’s reception quantity. Furthermore, spatiotemporal attribute datasets can assist authorities in evaluating infection risks to adopt targeted strategies based on local natural, economic, and social characteristics.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46392,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy\",\"volume\":\"18 4\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-10-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12061-025-09730-x\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12061-025-09730-x","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Spatiotemporal Epidemic Diffusion in Urban Tourist Areas: Modelling Tourist Flow and Virus Spread
COVID-19 has significantly impacted the global community, with tourism exacerbating its spread. However, research on tourism’s contribution to epidemic diffusion is scarce. Here, we integrate interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary knowledge to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic diffusion model for urban tourist areas based on tourist flow and virus contact transmission rules between individuals. We simulate the spatiotemporal virus spread process in tourists at the city scale. The research reveals that heavily-visited small tourist areas are the primary areas for virus transmission. Even small scenic areas with low visitation rates experienced virus transmission after more than one day of latency. For COVID-19, tourist input viruses are likely to cause transmission in sightseeing areas. However, whether the virus spreads uncontrollably among tourists depends on the city’s reception quantity. Furthermore, spatiotemporal attribute datasets can assist authorities in evaluating infection risks to adopt targeted strategies based on local natural, economic, and social characteristics.
期刊介绍：
Description
The journal has an applied focus: it actively promotes the importance of geographical research in real world settings
It is policy-relevant: it seeks both a readership and contributions from practitioners as well as academics
The substantive foundation is spatial analysis: the use of quantitative techniques to identify patterns and processes within geographic environments
The combination of these points, which are fully reflected in the naming of the journal, establishes a unique position in the marketplace.
RationaleA geographical perspective has always been crucial to the understanding of the social and physical organisation of the world around us. The techniques of spatial analysis provide a powerful means for the assembly and interpretation of evidence, and thus to address critical questions about issues such as crime and deprivation, immigration and demographic restructuring, retailing activity and employment change, resource management and environmental improvement. Many of these issues are equally important to academic research as they are to policy makers and Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy aims to close the gap between these two perspectives by providing a forum for discussion of applied research in a range of different contexts
Topical and interdisciplinaryIncreasingly government organisations, administrative agencies and private businesses are requiring research to support their ‘evidence-based’ strategies or policies. Geographical location is critical in much of this work which extends across a wide range of disciplines including demography, actuarial sciences, statistics, public sector planning, business planning, economics, epidemiology, sociology, social policy, health research, environmental management.
FocusApplied Spatial Analysis and Policy will draw on applied research from diverse problem domains, such as transport, policing, education, health, environment and leisure, in different international contexts. The journal will therefore provide insights into the variations in phenomena that exist across space, it will provide evidence for comparative policy analysis between domains and between locations, and stimulate ideas about the translation of spatial analysis methods and techniques across varied policy contexts. It is essential to know how to measure, monitor and understand spatial distributions, many of which have implications for those with responsibility to plan and enhance the society and the environment in which we all exist.
Readership and Editorial BoardAs a journal focused on applications of methods of spatial analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy will be of interest to scholars and students in a wide range of academic fields, to practitioners in government and administrative agencies and to consultants in private sector organisations. The Editorial Board reflects the international and multidisciplinary nature of the journal.
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