气候变化对可再生能源水力发电的影响：以Sakarya盆地为例

IF 5.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Ain Shams Engineering Journal Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI:10.1016/j.asej.2025.103823

Gokmen Ceribasi , Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu , Ahmet Celebi

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文将MRLI方法应用于Sakarya盆地HEPPs的能量数据以及降水和温度数据。该方法首次应用于能源数据。温度资料在低风险水平上总体呈上升趋势，而在某些站点，在高风险水平上呈下降趋势。降水数据因站而异；在Sakarya和k tahya的所有危险级别都有明显的下降趋势，而在zce和安卡拉站则有上升和下降的趋势。能源数据在不同的风险水平上显示出不同的趋势，在低风险水平的一些工厂观察到增加，而在所有级别的其他工厂观察到减少。这些发现表明，气候变化对水力发电的影响是非线性的，并且取决于风险水平。MRLI揭示了经典线性方法无法揭示的不同风险水平的对比趋势。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The role of climate change on hydroelectric energy from renewable energy sources: A case study of Sakarya Basin, Türkiye

This research is carried out by applying MRLI method to energy data produced at HEPPs located in Sakarya basin and precipitation and temperature data. This method is being carried out for first time for energy data. Temperature data generally showed increasing trends at low risk levels, while in some stations, decreasing trends were observed at high risk levels. Precipitation data varied by station; decreasing trends were prominent at all risk levels in Sakarya and Kütahya, while both increasing and decreasing trends were observed in stations Düzce and Ankara. Energy data showed distinct trends at different risk levels, with increases observed at some plants at low risk levels, while decreases were observed at others at all levels. These findings suggest that the impacts of climate change on hydroelectric power production are nonlinear and depend on risk level. MRLI reveals contrasting trends at different risk levels that classical linear methods cannot reveal.

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来源期刊

Ain Shams Engineering Journal Engineering-General Engineering

CiteScore

10.80

自引率

13.30%

发文量

441

审稿时长

49 weeks

期刊介绍： in Shams Engineering Journal is an international journal devoted to publication of peer reviewed original high-quality research papers and review papers in both traditional topics and those of emerging science and technology. Areas of both theoretical and fundamental interest as well as those concerning industrial applications, emerging instrumental techniques and those which have some practical application to an aspect of human endeavor, such as the preservation of the environment, health, waste disposal are welcome. The overall focus is on original and rigorous scientific research results which have generic significance. Ain Shams Engineering Journal focuses upon aspects of mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, civil engineering, chemical engineering, petroleum engineering, environmental engineering, architectural and urban planning engineering. Papers in which knowledge from other disciplines is integrated with engineering are especially welcome like nanotechnology, material sciences, and computational methods as well as applied basic sciences: engineering mathematics, physics and chemistry.