Radiocarbon-Inferred Population Trajectories for Southeastern Arabia During the Bronze Age

This paper builds on previous attempts to estimate radiocarbon-inferred population trends—although in Arabia, these attempts are few. A probabilistic reconstruction of Bronze Age (3200–1300 cal BC) demographic trends using a new data set of radiocarbon rates from across the Arabian Peninsula (n = 1280) is presented and a subset of dates (n = 288) from the Southeast (Oman and United Arab Emirates) is used. Using two different Bayesian modelling techniques to estimate growth rates, their changepoint and general fluctuations are assessed. The results from both models, although disagreeing about the magnitude of these trends, show clear evidence for steady and continual growth until the mid-Early Bronze Age. This is followed by a decline before the end of the third millennium, then growth until a peak in the Middle Bronze Age, before significant decline in the Late Bronze Age. These results are interpreted and contextualised in relation to possible drivers, including adaptions to climate and environmental changes, shifts in subsistence economies, increasing maritime and terrestrial trade, and the combination of long-term sedentary and mobile lifeways.