全球航运网络弹性演化与动态过程识别

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103851

Yafeng Qin , Jianke Guo , Shasha Wu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

港口和航运业经历了前所未有的市场波动，造成了一个以拥堵、运费飙升、装载延误和海上供应链中断为特征的动荡环境。因此，确保航运网络的稳定性和弹性对于确保工业和供应链安全至关重要。本研究采用跨学科的研究方法，结合地理交通工程的观点，建立了一个静态指标与动态情景相结合的理论框架和识别模型来评估航运网络弹性。利用2018 - 2022年全球航运数据，验证了模型的可行性，揭示了全球航运网络弹性演化和动态过程的规律。弹性指数分别为0.620、0.612、0.587、0.576、0.597，表现出先下降后回升的趋势。港口弹性表现出空间不平衡和区域集聚性，新加坡、巴生港、上海和香港等港口具有高弹性。与以往的研究相比，本文提出的框架更好地捕捉了弹性的复杂性和动态性。值得注意的是，特定策略下的弹性（节点度和风险概率）普遍低于随机节点策略。2020年，下降速度相对较高，而恢复速度仍然较低。这些研究结果为海上供应链安全和可持续发展提供了见解和理论指导。

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The resilience evolution and dynamic process identification of the global shipping network

The port and shipping industry has experienced unprecedented market fluctuations, resulting in a volatile environment characterized by congestion, soaring freight rates, loading delays, and disruptions in maritime supply chains. Therefore, ensuring the stability and resilience of shipping networks is crucial for ensuring industrial and supply chain security. This study adopts an interdisciplinary approach, integrating geography transportation engineering perspectives, to develop a theoretical framework and identification model combining static indicators and dynamic scenarios to assess shipping network resilience. Using global shipping data from 2018 to 2022, the model's feasibility was verified, revealing patterns in the evolution and dynamic processes of global shipping network resilience. The resilience index—0.620, 0.612, 0.587, 0.576, and 0.597—showed an initial decline followed by recovery. Port resilience exhibited spatial imbalance and regional clustering, with high-resilience ports such as Singapore, Port Kelang, Shanghai, and Hong Kong. Compared to previous studies, the proposed framework better captures the complexity and dynamic nature of resilience. Notably, resilience under specific strategies (node degree and risk probability) was generally lower than that in random node strategies. In 2020, the rate of decline was relatively high, while the recovery rate remained low. These findings offer insights and theoretical guidance for maritime supply chain security and sustainable development.

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.