Asel Sagingalieva , Stefan Komornyik , Arsenii Senokosov , Ayush Joshi , Christopher Mansell , Olga Tsurkan , Karan Pinto , Markus Pflitsch , Alexey Melnikov
{"title":"利用量子机器学习进行光伏发电预测","authors":"Asel Sagingalieva , Stefan Komornyik , Arsenii Senokosov , Ayush Joshi , Christopher Mansell , Olga Tsurkan , Karan Pinto , Markus Pflitsch , Alexey Melnikov","doi":"10.1016/j.solener.2025.114016","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic power is essential for reliable grid integration, yet remains difficult due to highly variable irradiance, complex meteorological drivers, site geography, and device-specific behavior. Although contemporary machine learning has achieved successes, it is not clear that these approaches are optimal: new model classes may further enhance performance and data efficiency. We investigate hybrid quantum neural networks for time-series forecasting of photovoltaic power and introduce two architectures. The first, a Hybrid Quantum Long Short-Term Memory model, reduces mean absolute error and mean squared error by more than 40% relative to the strongest baselines evaluated. The second, a Hybrid Quantum Sequence-to-Sequence model, once trained, it predicts power for arbitrary forecast horizons without requiring prior meteorological inputs and achieves a 16% lower mean absolute error than the best baseline on this task. Both hybrid models maintain superior accuracy when training data are limited, indicating improved data efficiency. These results show that hybrid quantum models address key challenges in photovoltaic power forecasting and offer a practical route to more reliable, data-efficient energy predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":428,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy","volume":"302 ","pages":"Article 114016"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Photovoltaic power forecasting using quantum machine learning\",\"authors\":\"Asel Sagingalieva , Stefan Komornyik , Arsenii Senokosov , Ayush Joshi , Christopher Mansell , Olga Tsurkan , Karan Pinto , Markus Pflitsch , Alexey Melnikov\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.solener.2025.114016\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic power is essential for reliable grid integration, yet remains difficult due to highly variable irradiance, complex meteorological drivers, site geography, and device-specific behavior. Although contemporary machine learning has achieved successes, it is not clear that these approaches are optimal: new model classes may further enhance performance and data efficiency. We investigate hybrid quantum neural networks for time-series forecasting of photovoltaic power and introduce two architectures. The first, a Hybrid Quantum Long Short-Term Memory model, reduces mean absolute error and mean squared error by more than 40% relative to the strongest baselines evaluated. The second, a Hybrid Quantum Sequence-to-Sequence model, once trained, it predicts power for arbitrary forecast horizons without requiring prior meteorological inputs and achieves a 16% lower mean absolute error than the best baseline on this task. Both hybrid models maintain superior accuracy when training data are limited, indicating improved data efficiency. These results show that hybrid quantum models address key challenges in photovoltaic power forecasting and offer a practical route to more reliable, data-efficient energy predictions.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":428,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Solar Energy\",\"volume\":\"302 \",\"pages\":\"Article 114016\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-10-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Solar Energy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X25007790\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Solar Energy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X25007790","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Photovoltaic power forecasting using quantum machine learning
Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic power is essential for reliable grid integration, yet remains difficult due to highly variable irradiance, complex meteorological drivers, site geography, and device-specific behavior. Although contemporary machine learning has achieved successes, it is not clear that these approaches are optimal: new model classes may further enhance performance and data efficiency. We investigate hybrid quantum neural networks for time-series forecasting of photovoltaic power and introduce two architectures. The first, a Hybrid Quantum Long Short-Term Memory model, reduces mean absolute error and mean squared error by more than 40% relative to the strongest baselines evaluated. The second, a Hybrid Quantum Sequence-to-Sequence model, once trained, it predicts power for arbitrary forecast horizons without requiring prior meteorological inputs and achieves a 16% lower mean absolute error than the best baseline on this task. Both hybrid models maintain superior accuracy when training data are limited, indicating improved data efficiency. These results show that hybrid quantum models address key challenges in photovoltaic power forecasting and offer a practical route to more reliable, data-efficient energy predictions.
期刊介绍:
Solar Energy welcomes manuscripts presenting information not previously published in journals on any aspect of solar energy research, development, application, measurement or policy. The term "solar energy" in this context includes the indirect uses such as wind energy and biomass