Short and long-term impact assessment of urban low-carbon pilot policies on household decarbonization

Promoting sustainable development in cities and reducing household carbon emissions can be effectively achieved through an urban low-carbon transition. This study utilizes nationwide household survey data and employs a Difference-In-Differences (DID) model to estimate the impact of such a transition. Results show that China's low-carbon pilot policy has resulted in an 8.8 % reduction in household carbon emissions and has had a greater impact on households with larger sizes and incomes, as well as those living in southern and urban regions. Furthermore, we have set three targeted low-carbon pilot scenarios to predict future potential low-carbon pathways. In the high development of urban low-carbon pathway scenario (HDLCP), the reduction magnitudes of China's provincial carbon emissions are predicted to peak at 2064.29 million tons in 2030 but decrease to 1857.86, 1114.72, and 501.62 million tons from 2040 to 2060. These findings provide valuable policy implications for developing and developed counties to trigger household carbon emission reduction through urban low-carbon transition.