Evolution characteristics and influencing factors of regional carbon emissions from the perspective of water-land-carbon linkage: a case study of Shandong Province

Background

Water and land resources are important for maintaining the sustainable development of society. However, with the utilization of water and land resources, a large amount of carbon emissions will be generated. Therefore, studying carbon emissions under the water-land-carbon connection is of great significance for achieving “dual carbon goals”. This paper first calculated the land use carbon emissions and the total carbon emissions in Shandong Province. Secondly, the carbon emission economic contribution coefficient (EC), carbon water coefficient (CWC), carbon emission intensity (CI), and coefficient of variation (CV) were constructed. The center of gravity-standard deviation ellipse was used to determine the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions. Finally, the Kaya-LMDI model was used to investigate the factors that influence carbon emissions.

Results

(1) The land use and total carbon emissions of the Provincial Capital Economic Circle (PEC) are more than those of the Jiaodong Economic Circle (JEC) and those of Lunan Economic Circle (LEC). For EC, PEC is greater than LEC is greater than JEC. For CWC, JEC is greater than PEC is greater than LEC. For CI, LEC is greater than PEC is greater than JEC. (2) The CV of carbon emissions in the province is at a low level, indicating a small fluctuation in carbon emissions. The spatial–temporal distribution of the land use carbon emissions is generally from northeast to southwest, and the center of gravity migration track is from northwest to northeast to southwest. The distribution of the total carbon emissions changes from northeast-southwest to southeast-northwest, and the shifting track is east-southwest. (3) Carbon emission efficiency effect, land economy effect, and population effect promote carbon emission; water use intensity effect and per capita land use effect inhibit carbon emission.

Conclusions

PEC gives priority to promoting the adjustment of industrial structure and the development of renewable energy; JEC strengthens the application of water-saving and recycling technologies; LEC optimizes land efficiency, develops low-carbon agriculture and strictly controls high energy-consuming projects. This result provides a new perspective and practical basis for urban collaborative carbon reduction.