[Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in Dongting Lake Basin Based on PLUS-InVEST Model].

The spatiotemporal evolution of carbon stocks and future trends in the Dongting Lake Basin， one of the important freshwater lake basins in China， are of great significance to studying global climate change. Based on the land use data of the Dongting Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020， this study simulated the characteristics of the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon stock in the basin using the PLUS-InVEST model under the three scenarios of natural development， cropland development， and ecological protection from 2030 to 2060. The study obtained the following results： ① From 2000 to 2020， the carbon stock in the Dongting Lake Basin showed an upward and then downward trend， with a total decrease of 0.31×10⁸ t in the 20 years， and a spatial pattern of "high in the northeast， low in the south， high in the northwest， and high in the east." ② From 2030 to 2060， the carbon stock in the Dongting Lake Basin decreases year by year under the natural development scenario and the cropland development scenario， but it increases each year under the ecological protection scenario. The 2060 carbon stock under the different scenarios shows a decreasing trend compared with the stock of 2020， decreasing by 0.842×10⁸ t under the natural development scenario， 0.964×10⁸ t under the cropland development scenario， and 0.004×10⁸ t under the ecological protection scenario. The decreasing trend is obviously weakened under the latter scenario. ③ The spatial differentiation of carbon stocks in the Dongting Lake Basin is affected by a variety of factors. DEM and slope are the main factors， with slope having the strongest explanatory power and the highest explanatory power in interaction with other factors. The results of this study will have a positive effect by guiding the rational utilization of resources and ecological construction in the Dongting Lake Basin and promoting the green development of the region.