Comprehensive Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Distribution of Five Fritillaria Species Using the Optimized Maxent Model

With climate change and the influence of human activities, species are likely to migrate or even go extinct. Five Fritillaria species, a well-known traditional Chinese medicinal plant, are rarer due to overharvesting. This study employed the Maxent model to identify suitable areas for the plant, determine key environmental factors, and project future shifts under three climate change scenarios. The analysis showed F. przewalskii and F. delavayi might migrate to higher elevations, while F. taipaiensis was expected to move to lower elevations. There were differences in the dominant environmental factors among different origins: F. cirrhosa (elevation, bio7, bio9, bio12, hfp); F. unibracteata (elevation, bio4, bio15, bio19, hfp); F. przewalskii (elevation, bio4, bio11, bio15, hfp); F. delavayi (elevation, bio3, bio18, hfp); F. taipaiensis (bio2, bio3, bio4, bio11, hfp). Under the SSP585 scenario, the suitable areas of F. cirrhosa, F. przewalskii, and F. taipaiensis were contracting, while those of F. unibracteata and F. delavayi were rising. Also, the centroids of F. cirrhosa and F. przewalskii shifted slightly northeastward, F. unibracteata's shifted southward, and F. delavayi and F. taipaiensis's shifted northwestward. These findings provide a foundation for the conservation, sustainable management, and cultivation of five Fritillaria species.