{"title":"1990 - 2021年MASLD-IBD合并症全球负担及2050年趋势预测","authors":"Yuanshan Xu, Youting Yi, Xiankang Zhang, Boyi Jia, Yanrong Huang, Renyun Cui, Haowen Sun, Meng Wang, Jin-Yi Wan, Haiqiang Yao, Chun-Su Yuan","doi":"10.1097/JS9.0000000000003383","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), a prevalent chronic liver disorder, imposes a substantial global clinical and economic burden. Emerging evidence underscores inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) as a significant independent risk factor for MASLD. However, the global burden and trends of MASLD-IBD comorbidity remain largely obscured. To evaluate the global MASLD-IBD burden from 1990 to 2021, and project trajectories to 2050, informing proactive public health strategies.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Leveraging the GBD 2021 database, we quantified IBD's contribution to MASLD via population-attributable fractions (PAF). We analysed the global prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratifying by socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, and age. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) assessed 1990-2021 trends; Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling projected 2050 trajectories.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence of MASLD-IBD comorbidity reached 171.7 cases (95% UI: 157.3-187.1), with a corresponding DALY rate of 0.5 cases (95% UI: 0.4-0.6) per 10 million population. High-income regions, including North America, Australia, and Western Europe, bore the highest burden. From 1990 to 2021, 20 out of 21 GBD regions exhibited escalating age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates, most markedly in East Asia (prevalence EAPC = 3.18; 95% CI: 2.59-3.77) and East Europe (DALY EAPC = 4.05; 95% CI: 3.32-4.79). Middle SDI regions saw the largest absolute increases, with mortality mirroring DALY trends. Adults ≥ 60 years bore disproportionately higher burdens. By 2050, projections suggest divergent gender trends of rising female burden versus declining male rates.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>MASLD-IBD comorbidity burdens have risen globally over three decades, necessitating targeted interventions, particularly for ageing populations and high-risk regions. Gender-specific strategies will be critical for mitigating future impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":14401,"journal":{"name":"International journal of surgery","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global burden of MASLD-IBD comorbidity from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction to 2050.\",\"authors\":\"Yuanshan Xu, Youting Yi, Xiankang Zhang, Boyi Jia, Yanrong Huang, Renyun Cui, Haowen Sun, Meng Wang, Jin-Yi Wan, Haiqiang Yao, Chun-Su Yuan\",\"doi\":\"10.1097/JS9.0000000000003383\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), a prevalent chronic liver disorder, imposes a substantial global clinical and economic burden. Emerging evidence underscores inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) as a significant independent risk factor for MASLD. However, the global burden and trends of MASLD-IBD comorbidity remain largely obscured. To evaluate the global MASLD-IBD burden from 1990 to 2021, and project trajectories to 2050, informing proactive public health strategies.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Leveraging the GBD 2021 database, we quantified IBD's contribution to MASLD via population-attributable fractions (PAF). We analysed the global prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratifying by socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, and age. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) assessed 1990-2021 trends; Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling projected 2050 trajectories.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence of MASLD-IBD comorbidity reached 171.7 cases (95% UI: 157.3-187.1), with a corresponding DALY rate of 0.5 cases (95% UI: 0.4-0.6) per 10 million population. High-income regions, including North America, Australia, and Western Europe, bore the highest burden. From 1990 to 2021, 20 out of 21 GBD regions exhibited escalating age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates, most markedly in East Asia (prevalence EAPC = 3.18; 95% CI: 2.59-3.77) and East Europe (DALY EAPC = 4.05; 95% CI: 3.32-4.79). Middle SDI regions saw the largest absolute increases, with mortality mirroring DALY trends. Adults ≥ 60 years bore disproportionately higher burdens. By 2050, projections suggest divergent gender trends of rising female burden versus declining male rates.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>MASLD-IBD comorbidity burdens have risen globally over three decades, necessitating targeted interventions, particularly for ageing populations and high-risk regions. Gender-specific strategies will be critical for mitigating future impacts.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14401,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International journal of surgery\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":10.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-10-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International journal of surgery\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1097/JS9.0000000000003383\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"SURGERY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of surgery","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/JS9.0000000000003383","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"SURGERY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Global burden of MASLD-IBD comorbidity from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction to 2050.
Background: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), a prevalent chronic liver disorder, imposes a substantial global clinical and economic burden. Emerging evidence underscores inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) as a significant independent risk factor for MASLD. However, the global burden and trends of MASLD-IBD comorbidity remain largely obscured. To evaluate the global MASLD-IBD burden from 1990 to 2021, and project trajectories to 2050, informing proactive public health strategies.
Methods: Leveraging the GBD 2021 database, we quantified IBD's contribution to MASLD via population-attributable fractions (PAF). We analysed the global prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratifying by socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, and age. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) assessed 1990-2021 trends; Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling projected 2050 trajectories.
Results: In 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence of MASLD-IBD comorbidity reached 171.7 cases (95% UI: 157.3-187.1), with a corresponding DALY rate of 0.5 cases (95% UI: 0.4-0.6) per 10 million population. High-income regions, including North America, Australia, and Western Europe, bore the highest burden. From 1990 to 2021, 20 out of 21 GBD regions exhibited escalating age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates, most markedly in East Asia (prevalence EAPC = 3.18; 95% CI: 2.59-3.77) and East Europe (DALY EAPC = 4.05; 95% CI: 3.32-4.79). Middle SDI regions saw the largest absolute increases, with mortality mirroring DALY trends. Adults ≥ 60 years bore disproportionately higher burdens. By 2050, projections suggest divergent gender trends of rising female burden versus declining male rates.
Conclusions: MASLD-IBD comorbidity burdens have risen globally over three decades, necessitating targeted interventions, particularly for ageing populations and high-risk regions. Gender-specific strategies will be critical for mitigating future impacts.
期刊介绍：
The International Journal of Surgery (IJS) has a broad scope, encompassing all surgical specialties. Its primary objective is to facilitate the exchange of crucial ideas and lines of thought between and across these specialties.By doing so, the journal aims to counter the growing trend of increasing sub-specialization, which can result in "tunnel-vision" and the isolation of significant surgical advancements within specific specialties.
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