Satellite observations indicate a declining trend of methane emissions from heavy oil production in Canada

In Canada, cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS) has a high methane emissions intensity. This study uses TROPOMI satellite observations and mass balance modeling to estimate multiyear (2019–2023) methane emissions rates for a key CHOPS region spanning Alberta and Saskatchewan. The iterative 3-year mean emissions estimates were found to be ∼4.5 times higher than industry-reported data but show a notable downward trend, with a 71 ± 34% reduction over the study period. The methane emissions intensity decreased by 63 ± 31%, reaching 0.69 ± 0.25 gCH₄/MJ, but remains substantially higher than that of other oil production basins globally. Although the TROPOMI-based emission reductions were found higher than the industry-reported reductions, our emission estimates remain notably higher than the industry-reported emissions. Deficient industry reporting makes identifying root causes difficult, underscoring the need for robust measurement systems to benchmark and drive performance improvements. Potential drivers for the observed reductions include regulatory efforts targeting vent gas and fugitive emissions, an increased use of solution gas combustors, and a 19% decline in production during the period. While the exact causes remain uncertain, the measurable reductions demonstrate progress toward lowering methane emissions in the region.