Rising burden of upper extremity fractures in China (1990–2021): A national study linking falls, aging, and divergent global trends

Background

Upper extremity fractures (UEFs) are a growing public health concern in China, yet comprehensive epidemiological data remain limited. This study examines the burden, trends, and risk factors of UEFs in China from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we analyzed the incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and causes of UEFs in China. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated, and trends were assessed using regression models. Sociodemographic index (SDI) associations and global comparisons were evaluated.

Results

In 2021, China recorded 11.1 million new UEF cases, a 31.92% increase since 1990. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) rose by 7.97%, contrasting with a 20.92% global decline. Fractures of the radius and/or ulna had the highest ASIR (404.52 per 100,000), while shoulder fractures saw the steepest YLD increase (42.69%). UEFs were more prevalent in males, except among children (<1, 10–14 years) and older adults (≥65 years), where females predominated. Falls accounted for 72.98% of UEFs, followed by road injuries (13.38%). Rehabilitation needs (YLDs) grew by 32.28%, with SDI-linked trends showing a plateau at SDI 0.59–0.72.

Conclusions

China's increasing burden of UEF, influenced by factors such as falls, an aging population, and urbanization, contrasts with the global downward trends. Immediate targeted actions (implementing fall prevention strategies for the elderly, enhancing road safety for young people, and broadening access to rehabilitation services) are essential to address this escalating public health issue.