Shifting drivers of urban cooling energy demand in China (1978–2024): A spatiotemporal analysis

Understanding cooling energy demand stress (CEDS) under urbanization and climate change is essential for sustainable energy planning. This study aims to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of CEDS in China from 1978 to 2024 and to disentangle the relative contributions of climatic and socioeconomic drivers. To achieve this objective, a multi-factor framework was developed, integrating both climatic factors (CDD extremes, CDD sums) and socioeconomic factors (population, building coverage) based on daily temperature records from 2310 stations and gridded population and land-cover data. Results indicate that the CEDS index increased rapidly across most of China (urban: 0.09, rural: 0.01, all: 0.02 per decade on average), with the sharpest rise at urban stations, where values rose from 0.40 to 0.74. The proportion of urban hotspot stations (CEDS >0.5) increased from 18.35 % in 1978–1988 to 92.66 % in 2014–2024, with CEDS hotspot coverage primarily concentrated in the southeastern (47.17 %) and northeastern (30.31 %) regions. Attribution analysis reveals climatic factors have consistently dominated CEDS in nonurban regions (86.16 % in 1978–1988; 77.67 % in 2014–2024), whereas urban areas shifted from climate-dominated CEDS in 1978–1988 (CDD extremes and CDD sums: 71.02 %) to socioeconomically driven CEDS in 2014–2024 (population and building coverage: 54.18 %; CDD extremes and CDD sums: 45.82 %). These findings highlight the necessity for region-specific strategies. Socioeconomically dominant urban hotspots are advised to adopt public energy-saving policies and promote energy-efficient building designs. In contrast, climatically driven nonurban areas are encouraged to leverage abundant land resources for renewable energy, such as solar and reservoir-based cooling, to mitigate persistent climate pressures.