基于空间主体的网约车系统及其环境影响模拟方法

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103848

Xingjun Huang , Yilan Bu , Junbei Liu , Meng Meng , Jie Zhang , Chengxiang Zhuge

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引用次数: 0

摘要

叫车服务可能会优化车辆使用，减少排放。为了研究网约车服务的扩散及其在个体层面的影响，本文提出了一个基于空间主体的模型，结合供需动态，模拟了2023 - 2038年中国深圳市网约车服务提供商、司机和用户在不同未来情景下的行为。基线情景（假设市场从2023年到2038年像以前一样发展）的结果显示，网约车的年使用量增长了36%，平均网约车价格下降了24.63%，司机的薪酬增长了73.16%。碳排放量减少33.13%（考虑到网约车服务取代了现有的联合运输模式）。假设情景表明，价格和补偿在早期阶段影响网约车系统，并进一步影响其碳减排潜力。研究结果将为网约车系统的政策制定和优化提供参考。

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A spatial agent-based approach to simulating the ride-hailing system and its environmental impacts

Ride-hailing services could potentially optimize vehicle use and reduce emissions. To investigate the diffusion of ride-hailing services and its impacts at the individual level, we proposed a spatial agent-based model, which integrated the supply-demand dynamics, to simulate the behaviors of the service provider, drivers, and users in Shenzhen, China, from 2023 to 2038 in various future scenarios. The results of the baseline scenario (assuming the market would evolve as before from 2023 to 2038) show a 36 % increase in annual ride-hailing usage, a 24.63 % decrease in the average ride-hailing price, and a 73.16 % increase in drivers' compensation. Carbon emissions reduces by 33.13 % (given that ride-hailing services replace existing combined transportation modes). The what-if scenarios show that price and compensation affect the ride-hailing system in the early stages and further its carbon emission reduction potential. The results would be useful for policy making and optimization of a ride-haling system.

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.