基于转移熵的中国城市高质量发展与城市韧性因果网络:结构与决定因素

IF 12 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY
Yunsong Yang , Tian Jing , Huihui Wang , Yuhao Zhong , Weijun Yu , Hui Zhou
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引用次数: 0

摘要

作为中国经济的核心引擎,城市推动了40年来全球经济的快速增长。然而,在传统模式下,它们的扩张加剧了环境恶化、资源短缺和社会经济失衡等风险。向高质量发展(HQ)的转变优先考虑创新,但城市现在面临双重压力——内部结构脆弱性和贸易摩擦和气候危机等外部冲击——因此需要城市韧性(UR)框架。然而,由于忽视了城市的互联性和跨区域网络的复杂性,目前的总部战略往往孤立地运作,孤立地处理复原力和发展问题,未能把握城市间的因果关系,导致政策支离破碎,错失了综合发展管理的机会。本研究通过开发一个全面的框架来绘制283个中国城市的因果影响网络,从而解决了这一差距。它将UR和HQ的多维评估与传递熵(一种非参数的信息论技术)相结合,以识别双向因果信息流。通过将社会网络分析与指数随机图模型相结合,本研究阐明了UR和HQ网络的结构特征和决定因素,为不确定性下的城市影响模式提供了见解。主要研究结果强调,东部沿海地区出现了高浓度的UR和HQ。所有网络都表现出跨区域的影响,总部的相互作用主要发生在邻近地区。UR网络对极端事件表现出敏感性,而HQ网络对常规事件更敏感。网络分析进一步揭示了弱集聚模式和驱动因果影响联系的关键节点城市。经济弹性和社会弹性影响城市因果网络的形成。本研究揭示了城市和总部网络的空间格局和决定因素,为加强城市间影响力、弥合区域鸿沟和促进弹性高质量增长的政策提供了实证支持。该研究为整合可持续发展和发展规划提供了一个可扩展的框架,为全球可持续发展议程做出了贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Causal network of high-quality development and urban resilience in Chinese cities based on transfer entropy: Structure and determinants
As the core engines of China’s economy, cities have driven four decades of rapid global growth. Yet their expansion under the traditional model has intensified risks such as environmental degradation, resource shortages, and socioeconomic imbalances. The shift to high-quality development (HQ) prioritizes innovation, but cities now face dual pressures—internal structural vulnerabilities and external shocks such as trade frictions and climate crises—necessitating an urban resilience (UR) framework. However, by neglecting cities’ interconnectedness and the complexity of cross-regional networks, current HQ strategies often operate in silos, which address resilience and development in isolation, fail to capture inter-city causal relationships, leading to fragmented policies and missed opportunities for integrated development management. This study addresses this gap by developing a comprehensive framework to map causal influence networks across 283 Chinese cities. It integrates multi-dimensional evaluations of UR and HQ with transfer entropy—a nonparametric, information-theoretic technique—to identify bidirectional causal information flows. By combining social network analysis with an exponential random graph model, this research illuminates the structural characteristics and determinants of UR and HQ networks, offering insights into urban influence patterns under uncertainty. Key findings highlight that high concentrations of UR and HQ emerged in eastern coastal agglomerations. All networks exhibited cross-regional influences, with HQ interactions occurring predominantly in adjacent areas. The UR network demonstrated sensitivity to extreme events, while the HQ network was more responsive to routine events. Network analysis further revealed weak agglomeration patterns and key node cities driving causal influence linkages. Economic resilience and social resilience influenced the formation of the urban causal networks. This study unravels the spatial patterns and determinants of UR and HQ networks, providing empirical support for policies that enhance inter-city influence, bridge regional divides, and foster resilient high-quality growth. The research contributes to global sustainability agendas by offering a scalable framework for integrating UR and development planning.
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来源期刊
Sustainable Cities and Society
Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
22.00
自引率
13.70%
发文量
810
审稿时长
27 days
期刊介绍: Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;
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