Household cooking energy transition in Tanzania: The interplay between energy accessibility, affordability and reliability in the shift to clean fuels

The transition from traditional to clean cooking energy in Tanzania remains sluggish despite continued efforts by government and development partners to promote clean cooking energy solutions. This study examined the determinants of household cooking energy choices using a multivariate probit (MVP) model with a control function (CF) approach. The MVP–CF framework was applied to address endogeneity in affordability and reliability measures while capturing interdependencies among multiple fuels in contexts where fuel stacking is prevalent. Using nationally representative data from Tanzania's Impact of Access to Sustainable Energy Survey (IASES) 2021/22, the analysis provides evidence of partial substitution and persistent energy stacking, confirming the interdependent nature of household fuel choices. Results show that energy accessibility, affordability, reliability, cultural perceptions, intra-household decision-making, and other household characteristics significantly influence cooking energy choices. Access to LPG and electricity increases the likelihood of clean fuel adoption, but affordability and reliability constraints limit sustained use. Even where clean fuels are available, low affordability and unreliable supply force households to rely on traditional or transitional fuels. Cultural norms, including perceptions that biomass fuels enhance food taste or repel insects, further constrain adoption. Findings also reveal rural–urban heterogeneity: rural households remain heavily dependent on firewood, whereas urban households are more likely to adopt LPG and electricity, often in combination with charcoal. Importantly, the MVP model highlights significant negative correlations among fuel alternatives, confirming substitutive relationships and validating the energy stacking hypothesis. Compared with the nested logit model, the MVP framework produces stronger marginal effects and better accounts for correlated choices, underscoring its methodological advantage. The persistence of energy stacking underscores the need for flexible, demand-sensitive policies. Integrated strategies that enhance energy affordability, reliability, and address cultural acceptability are critical to accelerating Tanzania's clean cooking transition and achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7.