Impacts of local institutions on land development around high-speed rail stations in China

The rapidly expanding high-speed rail (HSR) network in China is widely regarded as a catalyst for land development in host cities. While numerous studies have explored the impact of non-institutional factors, such as transportation infrastructure and socioeconomic characteristics, on land development around HSR stations, the role of institutional factors remain insufficiently examined. This study investigates how local institutions shape land development outcomes around 384 HSR stations in China from 2006 to 2020. We measure land development outcomes using 5 station-level metrics capturing development scale, intensity, and capitalization effects, and quantify institutional factors through 3 metrics derived from local government documents: development goals for HSR station areas, regulations for regulatory planning, and presence of national new zones. Employing two-way fixed effect models, we find that institutional factors play a crucial role in land development around HSR stations. More specifically, development goals promote larger-scale, more leapfrogging development; planning regulations restrict development scale and boost land prices; and national new zones encourage larger-scale, low-density development with reduced leapfrogging. The institutional effects vary significantly across city size and station type. Mechanism analysis reveals that development goals affect land development through both market-driven and government-led channels. Our study provides valuable insights for planning practices in HSR station areas, supporting local governments in optimizing the performance of HSR new towns to achieve sustainable HSR-induced urbanization.