Kehan Zhang , Chao Mei , Jiahong Liu , Jia Wang , Tianxu Song , Hongyuan Shi , Anqi Zhang , Xiaojie Cao
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Based on the spatial relationships between 20 types of lifeline infrastructure and disaster-bearing bodies, a weighted and directed network was constructed, with 0.5 m water depth defined as the threshold for cascading failures. The results show that under extreme rainfall events, the LFSCN undergoes a staged yet nonlinear degradation process, characterized by a transition from localized disruptions to system-wide cascading failures. Among various infrastructures, the influence of the power supply was relatively prominent, and its failure was more likely to cause the degradation of multi-system linkage. Upon reaching stabilization, the disaster chain network damage index (DCNDI) under 50 yr, 100 yr, 200 yr, and ZZ 720 rainfall events were 0.20, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.81, respectively. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
在极端气候事件频发的背景下,城市生命线基础设施相互依存程度日益加深,灾害链传播路径日益复杂。为了揭示极端降雨事件下生命线基础设施灾害链网络(LFSCN)的时空演变,基于暴雨水管理模型(Storm Water Management model, SWMM)和模拟地表水流的二维水动力模型TELEMAC-2D,建立了一个耦合的城市洪水数值模型。根据20种生命线基础设施与承灾体的空间关系,构建加权定向网络,将0.5 m水深定义为级联故障阈值。结果表明,在极端降雨条件下,LFSCN经历了一个阶段性的非线性退化过程,其特征是从局部破坏到全系统级联破坏的转变。在各种基础设施中,电源的影响比较突出,其故障更容易造成多系统联动的退化。稳定后,50年、100年、200年和zz720年降雨事件下的灾害链网络破坏指数(DCNDI)分别为0.20、0.37、0.45和0.81。提出的综合框架将洪水模拟与网络分析相结合,不仅可以量化网络破坏,还可以捕捉级联传播过程,为识别关键节点、为基础设施优化提供信息、加强城市韧性和应急准备提供科学支持。
Spatiotemporal evolution analysis of urban lifeline infrastructure disaster chain network based on numerical simulation and cascading effects
Under the backdrop of frequent extreme climate events, urban lifeline infrastructures are becoming highly interdependent, and the propagation path of the disaster chain is becoming increasingly complex. To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of lifeline infrastructure disaster chain network (LFSCN) under extreme rainfall events, a coupled urban flood numerical model integrating the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)—a widely used hydrological-hydraulic simulation tool for urban drainage—and TELEMAC-2D, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model for simulating surface flow, was developed. Based on the spatial relationships between 20 types of lifeline infrastructure and disaster-bearing bodies, a weighted and directed network was constructed, with 0.5 m water depth defined as the threshold for cascading failures. The results show that under extreme rainfall events, the LFSCN undergoes a staged yet nonlinear degradation process, characterized by a transition from localized disruptions to system-wide cascading failures. Among various infrastructures, the influence of the power supply was relatively prominent, and its failure was more likely to cause the degradation of multi-system linkage. Upon reaching stabilization, the disaster chain network damage index (DCNDI) under 50 yr, 100 yr, 200 yr, and ZZ 720 rainfall events were 0.20, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.81, respectively. The proposed integrated framework, combining flood simulation with network analysis, not only quantifies network damage but also captures cascading propagation processes, providing scientific support for identifying critical nodes, informing infrastructure optimization, and strengthening urban resilience and emergency preparedness.
期刊介绍:
Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including:
1. Smart cities and resilient environments;
2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management;
3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management);
4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities;
5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments;
6. Green infrastructure and BMPs;
7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management;
8. Urban agriculture and forestry;
9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure;
10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy;
11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities;
12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities;
13. Health monitoring and improvement;
14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies;
15. Smart city governance;
16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society;
17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies;
18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems.
19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management;
20. Waste reduction and recycling;
21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling;
22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;