The effect of land-use forecasting on dust source susceptibility mapping in Iran

The present study investigates the dynamics of land-use changes and their relationship with dust generation in the semi-arid region of Fars Province. The main objective of this study is to understand how the interactions between land-use patterns and dust-generation intensity affect the environment. Using remote-sensing data and advanced modeling techniques such as CA-Markov and meta-heuristic algorithms, land-use changes and their impact on dust occurrence are predicted for the years 2024, 2050, and 2100. The results show that land-use changes, especially the reduction in agricultural land and increase in bare land, play an important role in the intensification of dust generation. Predictions indicate that by 2100, agricultural land will have decreased significantly, and bare land will have increased sharply. These changes, which are primarily caused by anthropogenic processes and urban development, will lead to the expansion of high-risk dust zones in the area. Modelling shows that Ant colony optimization (ACO) is superior to other methods in making proper predictions of these changes, as well as assessing dust risk. The study reveals the relevance of future land-use change prediction to manage the vulnerability of dust sources in Iran's arid and semi-arid regions. The study reveals that future agricultural changes, urbanization, and infrastructure expansion, will directly and prominently influence the intensity and pattern of dust. Understanding such trends can help policymakers carry out adequate management policies that will reduce the negative impact of dust on ecosystem health and air quality. The results of this research, in addition to advancing scientific knowledge of environmental processes, hold out the possibility of developing long-term policies that will ensure public health and natural resource conservation in vulnerable regions.