Time-varying interactions between monetary and housing credit policy

The US federal government has long played a pivotal role in the mortgage market through various agencies, most notably the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The importance of these agencies in the housing credit policy landscape increased during the 1990s and in the years leading up to the Great Recession. This article examines the time-varying effects of monetary policy on mortgage credit, focusing on the role of housing credit policy from the early 1990s to 2014. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model and high-frequency monetary policy surprises, I show that GSEs’ activity in the secondary mortgage market has shaped the response of mortgage originations to monetary policy shocks. As GSEs became more involved in housing policy, the response of mortgage refinancing originations and GSEs’ mortgage purchases to monetary policy strengthened. This suggests that contractionary monetary policy, by undermining housing policy objectives and increasing profit opportunities from mortgage purchases, may prompt a stronger response from GSEs, which in turn dampens the adverse effects of monetary policy tightening on housing activity.