Multi-scale assessment of energy transition and emission patterns in industrial coastal regions

Decarbonizing industrialized coastal regions is essential to achieving global climate targets. This study conducts a comprehensive, multi-level spatial and structural assessment of the energy mix and carbon emission patterns in Guangdong Province, China—one of the most industrialized and energy-intensive regions nationwide. By integrating provincial, municipal, and enterprise-level datasets, we identify the dominant role of the secondary sector in energy consumption and reveal significant spatial disparities in sectoral emissions across cities. Detailed analysis highlights the clustering of major carbon-emitting enterprises, particularly coal-fired power plants, along coastal zones and within the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Despite the deceleration in thermal power growth, coal-fired electricity generation remains the primary emission source, while renewable energy, though rapidly expanding, contributes a relatively modest share. Emission projections for the power sector indicate a gradual decline through the mid-century, contingent on the accelerated deployment of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technologies, the expansion of renewable energy, and the strategic phaseout of outdated coal capacity. The findings provide critical insights for optimizing source–sink matching in CCUS deployment and inform the design of differentiated, region-specific decarbonization strategies. This study offers valuable empirical evidence to support Guangdong’s low-carbon transition and contributes to broader discussions on sustainable energy transformations in rapidly industrializing coastal regions.