太阳能光伏（PV）技术的合理退役：来自澳大利亚的证据

IF 10.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108621

Kehao Chen , Jian Zuo , Ruidong Chang , Xuepeng Qian , Anthony Carbone , Wei Emma Zhang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

光伏技术正在全球范围内迅速部署，以实现气候目标，但由此产生的光伏废弃物对全球脱碳承诺构成了越来越大的挑战。本研究通过提出一个合理的退役模型，解决了未来光伏废弃物规模及其时空特征的未解决问题。结合多个因素，该模型捕捉到光伏寿命和废物产生的复杂驱动因素。研究结果显示，从2008年到2079年，超过95%的小型光伏系统（SPS）用户会选择早期更换，以最大化经济回报，导致光伏浪费在保修期前近10年出现，并最终超过新安装。在最快的脱碳情景下，光伏废弃物将分别是基线和最慢路径下的1.8倍和2.8倍。结果表明，在不同的维度尺度上，气候变化具有明显的时空异质性和情景敏感性。该范例为全球光伏废弃物管理提供了可转移的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

The rational decommissioning of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies: evidence from Australia

查看原文本刊更多论文

The rational decommissioning of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies: evidence from Australia

PV technology is being rapidly deployed worldwide to meet climate goals, yet the resulting PV waste poses a growing challenge to global decarbonization commitment. This study addresses the unresolved question of future PV waste magnitude and its spatial-temporal characteristics by proposing a rational decommissioning model. Incorporating multiple factors, the model captures the complex drivers of PV lifespan and waste generation. Validated using Australia—global leader in residential PV—the results show that from 2008 to 2079, over 95 % of Small-scale PV System (SPS) users would opt for early replacement to maximize financial return, causing PV waste to emerge nearly a decade before warranty and eventually outpace new installations. Under the fastest decarbonization scenario, PV waste will be 1.8 and 2.8 times higher than under baseline and slowest pathways, respectively. Results reveal obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity and scenario sensitivity across multi-dimensional scales. The paradigm provides transferable insights for global PV waste management.

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.