通过城市绿地扩张调节生态系统服务和环境影响的模型——以马尼拉市为例

IF 6.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Urban Climate Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI:10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102641

Wencelito Palis Hintural , Mark Bryan Carayugan , Byung Bae Park

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在快速城市化的热带城市中，城市绿地扩张日益被认为是增强生态系统服务和减轻环境影响的重要战略。然而，对这些效益的基于情景的定量模拟仍然有限，特别是在东南亚。本研究通过使用三个基线测量年（即2018年、2021年和2024年）研究菲律宾马尼拉市六个国会选区的城市植被扩张对环境的潜在贡献，解决了这一差距。采用线性混合模型评估了在裸地（S1）、草地或草本区（S2）、不透水建筑（S3）和不透水道路周边（S4）的现有植被覆盖和模拟绿色覆盖下，碳固存、污染去除、水文调节以及相关的全球变暖潜势和细颗粒物形成减少的区域间变化。结果显示，不同情景对ES的调节存在显著差异（p < 0.001），在碳固存和水文调节方面显著获益。模拟还预测了PM2.5去除率的提高，尽管在不同地区和情景下变化很大，但应该被解释为暂时的和补充的，与直接减排战略相比，提供的好处有限。S1至S3模拟的全球变暖潜势减少幅度最大，但空间异质性仍然明显，特别是空气质量效益。在避免二氧化碳当量排放方面，绿化情景和地区之间存在显著的相互作用效应（p < 0.05），这加强了针对具体环境进行规划的必要性，使绿化战略与当地的生物物理和大气条件保持一致。这些发现强调了空间上细致入微的绿色基础设施规划在最大化城市环境协同效益方面的重要性。

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Modeling regulating ecosystem services and environmental impact through urban green space expansion: A case study of Manila City

Urban green space expansion is increasingly recognized as a vital strategy for enhancing ecosystem services (ES) and mitigating environmental impacts in rapidly urbanizing tropical cities. However, quantitative, scenario-based simulations of such benefits remain limited, particularly in Southeast Asia. This study addressed this gap by examining the potential environmental contributions of urban vegetation expansion across the six congressional districts of Manila City, Philippines using three baseline measurement years (i.e., 2018, 2021, and 2024). Linear mixed modeling was employed to evaluate inter-district-level changes in carbon sequestration, pollution removal, hydrological regulation, and associated reductions in global warming potential and fine particulate matter formation under present vegetation cover and simulated green cover introductions on bare ground (S1), grass or herbaceous areas (S2), impervious buildings (S3), and impervious road peripheries (S4). Results showed significant differences in regulating ES across scenarios (p < 0.001), with notable gains in carbon sequestration and hydrological regulation. The simulations also projected enhanced PM_2.5 removal rates, albeit highly variable across districts and scenarios, and should be interpreted as temporary and supplementary, offering limited benefits compared to direct emission reduction strategies. S1 to S3 yielded the most substantial modeled reductions in global warming potential, though spatial heterogeneity remained evident, particularly for air quality benefits. Significant interaction effects (p < 0.05) between greening scenario and district for avoided CO₂ equivalent emissions reinforce the need for context-specific planning that aligns greening strategies with local biophysical and atmospheric conditions. These findings emphasize the importance of spatially nuanced green infrastructure planning in maximizing urban environmental co-benefits.

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来源期刊

Urban Climate Social Sciences-Urban Studies

CiteScore

9.70

自引率

9.40%

发文量

286

期刊介绍： Urban Climate serves the scientific and decision making communities with the publication of research on theory, science and applications relevant to understanding urban climatic conditions and change in relation to their geography and to demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, technological and environmental dynamics and global change. Targeted towards both disciplinary and interdisciplinary audiences, this journal publishes original research papers, comprehensive review articles, book reviews, and short communications on topics including, but not limited to, the following: Urban meteorology and climate[...] Urban environmental pollution[...] Adaptation to global change[...] Urban economic and social issues[...] Research Approaches[...]