Huihui Zhu, Fangfang Lv, Shunhang Wen, Ming Xu, Hailin Zhang
{"title":"青少年百日咳负担趋势：在2021年全球疾病负担研究范围内对1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家进行的系统分析，并对2046年进行预测。","authors":"Huihui Zhu, Fangfang Lv, Shunhang Wen, Ming Xu, Hailin Zhang","doi":"10.3389/fped.2025.1601110","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Pertussis, a highly contagious respiratory disease caused by Bordetella pertussis, traditionally associated with children, is now increasingly transmitted by adolescents (ages 10-19) and adults. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021), we estimated the disease burden of pertussis among adolescents.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed adolescent pertussis data from GBD 2021, assessing prevalence, incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) rate across global, regional, and national levels. Temporal trends were quantified with the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC), and decomposition and prediction models were employed for further insights.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, adolescent pertussis prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALY rate declined markedly worldwide. Declines were most pronounced in High and High-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, whereas Low SDI regions maintained the highest burden in 2021. Across the 21 GBD regions, the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALY rates have all declined. However, in Central Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of prevalence cases, incidence cases, deaths, and DALYs have increased, while these values have significantly decreased among adolescents in the other 20 GBD regions. Nationally and territorially, the study found substantial variability in the burden of pertussis among adolescents. Decomposition analysis indicated that epidemiological changes primarily drove the decline in most regions, though population growth contributed to increases in some areas. Projection models suggest that the global adolescent pertussis burden will reach its peak in 2022, followed by a gradual decline through 2046.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Despite an overall global decline, pertussis remains a public health concern among adolescents due to their role in disease transmission. Strengthening epidemiological understanding in this age group is essential for effective prevention and control strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":12637,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Pediatrics","volume":"13 ","pages":"1601110"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12504105/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trends in adolescent pertussis burden: a systematic analysis from 1990 to 2021 in global, regional, and national within the global burden of disease study 2021, with forecasts for 2046.\",\"authors\":\"Huihui Zhu, Fangfang Lv, Shunhang Wen, Ming Xu, Hailin Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/fped.2025.1601110\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Pertussis, a highly contagious respiratory disease caused by Bordetella pertussis, traditionally associated with children, is now increasingly transmitted by adolescents (ages 10-19) and adults. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021), we estimated the disease burden of pertussis among adolescents.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed adolescent pertussis data from GBD 2021, assessing prevalence, incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) rate across global, regional, and national levels. Temporal trends were quantified with the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC), and decomposition and prediction models were employed for further insights.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, adolescent pertussis prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALY rate declined markedly worldwide. Declines were most pronounced in High and High-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, whereas Low SDI regions maintained the highest burden in 2021. Across the 21 GBD regions, the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALY rates have all declined. However, in Central Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of prevalence cases, incidence cases, deaths, and DALYs have increased, while these values have significantly decreased among adolescents in the other 20 GBD regions. Nationally and territorially, the study found substantial variability in the burden of pertussis among adolescents. Decomposition analysis indicated that epidemiological changes primarily drove the decline in most regions, though population growth contributed to increases in some areas. Projection models suggest that the global adolescent pertussis burden will reach its peak in 2022, followed by a gradual decline through 2046.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Despite an overall global decline, pertussis remains a public health concern among adolescents due to their role in disease transmission. Strengthening epidemiological understanding in this age group is essential for effective prevention and control strategies.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12637,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Frontiers in Pediatrics\",\"volume\":\"13 \",\"pages\":\"1601110\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12504105/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Frontiers in Pediatrics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2025.1601110\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PEDIATRICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Pediatrics","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2025.1601110","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PEDIATRICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Trends in adolescent pertussis burden: a systematic analysis from 1990 to 2021 in global, regional, and national within the global burden of disease study 2021, with forecasts for 2046.
Background: Pertussis, a highly contagious respiratory disease caused by Bordetella pertussis, traditionally associated with children, is now increasingly transmitted by adolescents (ages 10-19) and adults. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021), we estimated the disease burden of pertussis among adolescents.
Methods: We analyzed adolescent pertussis data from GBD 2021, assessing prevalence, incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) rate across global, regional, and national levels. Temporal trends were quantified with the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC), and decomposition and prediction models were employed for further insights.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, adolescent pertussis prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALY rate declined markedly worldwide. Declines were most pronounced in High and High-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, whereas Low SDI regions maintained the highest burden in 2021. Across the 21 GBD regions, the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALY rates have all declined. However, in Central Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of prevalence cases, incidence cases, deaths, and DALYs have increased, while these values have significantly decreased among adolescents in the other 20 GBD regions. Nationally and territorially, the study found substantial variability in the burden of pertussis among adolescents. Decomposition analysis indicated that epidemiological changes primarily drove the decline in most regions, though population growth contributed to increases in some areas. Projection models suggest that the global adolescent pertussis burden will reach its peak in 2022, followed by a gradual decline through 2046.
Conclusions: Despite an overall global decline, pertussis remains a public health concern among adolescents due to their role in disease transmission. Strengthening epidemiological understanding in this age group is essential for effective prevention and control strategies.
期刊介绍：
Frontiers in Pediatrics (Impact Factor 2.33) publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research broadly across the field, from basic to clinical research that meets ongoing challenges in pediatric patient care and child health. Field Chief Editors Arjan Te Pas at Leiden University and Michael L. Moritz at the Children''s Hospital of Pittsburgh are supported by an outstanding Editorial Board of international experts. This multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, clinicians and the public worldwide.
Frontiers in Pediatrics also features Research Topics, Frontiers special theme-focused issues managed by Guest Associate Editors, addressing important areas in pediatrics. In this fashion, Frontiers serves as an outlet to publish the broadest aspects of pediatrics in both basic and clinical research, including high-quality reviews, case reports, editorials and commentaries related to all aspects of pediatrics.
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