{"title":"全球儿童伯基特淋巴瘤负担（1990-2021）：流行病学趋势、地区差异和2035年全球疾病负担研究的预测","authors":"Guoqian Ma, Changyu Hou, Yuan Li, Fan Jia","doi":"10.3389/fmed.2025.1619750","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is a highly aggressive pediatric B-cell lymphoma with marked geographic heterogeneity. Up-to-date global estimates are needed to inform prevention and care.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data to estimate incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for childhood BL (0-14 years) from 1990 to 2021 across 204 countries/territories, stratified by sex, age, region, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Trends were summarized using joinpoint annual percent change and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Bayesian age-period-cohort models projected the burden to 2035.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>In 2021, there were 4,083 incident BL cases globally [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 2,688-5,171]. The global incidence rate was 0.20 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.13-0.26) versus 0.16 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.10-0.23) in 1990. Burden varied substantially by development level: the low-SDI region had the highest incidence rate (0.44 per 100,000, 95% UI 0.26-0.59), mortality rate (0.43 per 100,000, 95% UI 0.25-0.58), and DALY rate (36.19 per 100,000, 95% UI 21.00-48.64). High-SDI regions showed lower mortality rates and evidence of declines, consistent with broader access to timely diagnosis, multi-agent chemotherapy, and supportive care. By 2035, the incidence rate is expected to reach 0.15 (95% CI 0.11-0.19) per 100,000, the mortality rate to 0.10 (95% CI 0.07-0.13) per 100,000, and the DALY rate to 8.21 (95% CI 5.98-10.43) per 100,000.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>Global BL rates appear broadly stable, with pronounced inequities concentrated in low-SDI settings. Apparent improvements are heterogeneous, not universal, and are most evident in high-SDI regions where treatment and supportive care are widely available. Projections to 2035 suggest modest declines in global rates, contingent on sustained malaria control and expanded access to diagnosis and curative therapy in high-burden regions. Targeted investments linking infection control with pediatric oncology capacity are required to reduce the global burden of childhood BL.</p>","PeriodicalId":12488,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Medicine","volume":"12 ","pages":"1619750"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12504260/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global burden of childhood Burkitt lymphoma (1990-2021): epidemiological trends, regional disparities, and projections for 2035 from the Global Burden of Disease Study.\",\"authors\":\"Guoqian Ma, Changyu Hou, Yuan Li, Fan Jia\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/fmed.2025.1619750\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is a highly aggressive pediatric B-cell lymphoma with marked geographic heterogeneity. Up-to-date global estimates are needed to inform prevention and care.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data to estimate incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for childhood BL (0-14 years) from 1990 to 2021 across 204 countries/territories, stratified by sex, age, region, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Trends were summarized using joinpoint annual percent change and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Bayesian age-period-cohort models projected the burden to 2035.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>In 2021, there were 4,083 incident BL cases globally [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 2,688-5,171]. The global incidence rate was 0.20 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.13-0.26) versus 0.16 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.10-0.23) in 1990. Burden varied substantially by development level: the low-SDI region had the highest incidence rate (0.44 per 100,000, 95% UI 0.26-0.59), mortality rate (0.43 per 100,000, 95% UI 0.25-0.58), and DALY rate (36.19 per 100,000, 95% UI 21.00-48.64). High-SDI regions showed lower mortality rates and evidence of declines, consistent with broader access to timely diagnosis, multi-agent chemotherapy, and supportive care. By 2035, the incidence rate is expected to reach 0.15 (95% CI 0.11-0.19) per 100,000, the mortality rate to 0.10 (95% CI 0.07-0.13) per 100,000, and the DALY rate to 8.21 (95% CI 5.98-10.43) per 100,000.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>Global BL rates appear broadly stable, with pronounced inequities concentrated in low-SDI settings. Apparent improvements are heterogeneous, not universal, and are most evident in high-SDI regions where treatment and supportive care are widely available. Projections to 2035 suggest modest declines in global rates, contingent on sustained malaria control and expanded access to diagnosis and curative therapy in high-burden regions. Targeted investments linking infection control with pediatric oncology capacity are required to reduce the global burden of childhood BL.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12488,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Frontiers in Medicine\",\"volume\":\"12 \",\"pages\":\"1619750\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12504260/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Frontiers in Medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2025.1619750\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2025.1619750","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Global burden of childhood Burkitt lymphoma (1990-2021): epidemiological trends, regional disparities, and projections for 2035 from the Global Burden of Disease Study.
Background: Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is a highly aggressive pediatric B-cell lymphoma with marked geographic heterogeneity. Up-to-date global estimates are needed to inform prevention and care.
Methods: We analyzed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data to estimate incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for childhood BL (0-14 years) from 1990 to 2021 across 204 countries/territories, stratified by sex, age, region, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Trends were summarized using joinpoint annual percent change and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Bayesian age-period-cohort models projected the burden to 2035.
Findings: In 2021, there were 4,083 incident BL cases globally [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 2,688-5,171]. The global incidence rate was 0.20 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.13-0.26) versus 0.16 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.10-0.23) in 1990. Burden varied substantially by development level: the low-SDI region had the highest incidence rate (0.44 per 100,000, 95% UI 0.26-0.59), mortality rate (0.43 per 100,000, 95% UI 0.25-0.58), and DALY rate (36.19 per 100,000, 95% UI 21.00-48.64). High-SDI regions showed lower mortality rates and evidence of declines, consistent with broader access to timely diagnosis, multi-agent chemotherapy, and supportive care. By 2035, the incidence rate is expected to reach 0.15 (95% CI 0.11-0.19) per 100,000, the mortality rate to 0.10 (95% CI 0.07-0.13) per 100,000, and the DALY rate to 8.21 (95% CI 5.98-10.43) per 100,000.
Interpretation: Global BL rates appear broadly stable, with pronounced inequities concentrated in low-SDI settings. Apparent improvements are heterogeneous, not universal, and are most evident in high-SDI regions where treatment and supportive care are widely available. Projections to 2035 suggest modest declines in global rates, contingent on sustained malaria control and expanded access to diagnosis and curative therapy in high-burden regions. Targeted investments linking infection control with pediatric oncology capacity are required to reduce the global burden of childhood BL.
期刊介绍：
Frontiers in Medicine publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research linking basic research to clinical practice and patient care, as well as translating scientific advances into new therapies and diagnostic tools. Led by an outstanding Editorial Board of international experts, this multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, clinicians and the public worldwide.
In addition to papers that provide a link between basic research and clinical practice, a particular emphasis is given to studies that are directly relevant to patient care. In this spirit, the journal publishes the latest research results and medical knowledge that facilitate the translation of scientific advances into new therapies or diagnostic tools. The full listing of the Specialty Sections represented by Frontiers in Medicine is as listed below. As well as the established medical disciplines, Frontiers in Medicine is launching new sections that together will facilitate
- the use of patient-reported outcomes under real world conditions
- the exploitation of big data and the use of novel information and communication tools in the assessment of new medicines
- the scientific bases for guidelines and decisions from regulatory authorities
- access to medicinal products and medical devices worldwide
- addressing the grand health challenges around the world
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