Offsite Pension or Offspring Caregiving: Spatial Differentiation and Determinants of Elderly Migration Motivations in China

Given the rapid population aging and significant internal migration, it is crucial to examine the spatial heterogeneity of elderly migration to better understand inequalities arising from different motivations. However, relatively few studies have explored the diverse drivers of elderly migration in China. This study focuses on two typical types of elderly migration, migration for offspring caregiving (caregiving-oriented migration) and offsite pension (retirement-oriented migration), and compares them, given their distinct motivations. Using the 2020 China Census and spatial analysis methods, this study compares and analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns and influencing factors of the different types in China’s elderly migration. The results show a markedly unbalanced spatial distribution of elderly migration across China. Although motivated by different reasons, the highest migration ratios are concentrated in eastern provincial capitals and coastal urban agglomerations. At the same time, significant differences emerge in clustering patterns at both intra- and inter-provincial scales. Specifically, intra-provincial elderly migration is dominated by retirement-oriented moves, with a clear predominance in northern and northeastern regions. By contrast, inter-provincial elderly migration is primarily driven by caregiving for offspring, particularly concentrated in coastal areas. Furthermore, we find evidence of spatial spillover effects in both migration types. Results from the spatial lag model suggest that the availability of public services, accessibility of facilities, and quality of living environment are the main factors shaping elderly migration, while socio-economic variables exert comparatively weaker influence.