High-resolution decarbonization pathways for the plastics industry: Based on the circular linkage of production, living, and ecological systems

The rapid development of the plastic industry has led to substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, we developed a high-resolution dynamic material flow analysis model for plastics, integrating life cycle assessment and scenario analysis methods to quantify the GHG emissions associated with five decarbonization pathways in the plastics industry. The results indicate that China's plastics industry GHG emissions will reach 1296.8 million tonnes (Mt) by 2060. Increasing plastic recycling rates within the living system can reduce emissions by 15.7 %. Utilizing CO₂ from the production system as a feedstock results in higher cumulative GHG emissions, while substituting biomass from the ecological system can achieve carbon neutrality by 2059, with negative GHG emissions of 39.6 Mt by 2060. Moreover, decarbonization pathways vary across different plastic types. Therefore, a comprehensive approach that integrates multiple decarbonization strategies across the production, living, and ecological systems is essential to evaluate emission reduction potential in the plastics industry.