Predictive Modeling of the Distribution of the Red Palm Weevil Rhynchophorus ferrugineus Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in Brazil: Identifying Vulnerable Areas and Potential Impacts.

Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), commonly known as the red palm weevil, is one of the most destructive invasive pests threatening palm species worldwide. Its rapid global spread has been facilitated by the international trade of infested plant material and its cryptic life cycle. In Brazil, a country with one of the highest palm species diversities and significant coconut production along its coastline, the introduction and establishment of R. ferrugineus pose a serious threat to native biodiversity and the agricultural economy. In this study, we used the MaxEnt modeling approach to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in Brazil, based on 79 occurrence records and nine selected bioclimatic variables. The consensus model exhibited excellent predictive performance (AUC = 0.95, TSS = 0.84). Our results indicate that coastal areas of the Northeast, Southeast, and South regions present high environmental suitability for the species, with low uncertainty, while portions of the Amazon show moderate suitability coupled with higher uncertainty. The mean temperature of the driest quarter (BIO9) was identified as the most influential variable, aligning with the species' thermal preferences. The presence of highly suitable areas overlapping regions of dense palm diversity and economically important crops underscores the urgent need for early detection and integrated management strategies. Our findings provide critical insights for biosecurity planning and highlight Brazil's vulnerability to R. ferrugineus invasion.