Patterns and dynamics of conflict-related sexual violence: an insight from 54 African countries.

Background: Conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) remains a critical public health and human rights issue across Africa, affecting vulnerable populations including women, children, and marginalized groups. This study explores the patterns and dynamics of CRSV across 54 African countries between 2020 and 2024.

Methods: Secondary, de-identified data were sourced from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx). Descriptive statistics were conducted using IBM SPSS v27 to determine the trends in types of sexual violence and perpetrators. Pearson's chi-square (χ²) and Fisher-Freeman-Halton tests were used to assess associations between variables. Count data panel regression using Stata 15 was applied to examine factors associated with both the frequency and mortality outcomes of CRSV.

Results: Rape was the most prevalent form of sexual violence reported across the study period. Militants and national military forces were identified as leading perpetrators. Significant associations were found between types of sexual violence and perpetrator categories (χ²=208.209, p < 0.05), as well as between violence type and victim status (χ²=11.351, p = 0.040). Regression results revealed that perpetrators such as civilians (β = 0.897) and militants (β = 0.610) were more likely to be involved in multi-victim incidents. Sexual violence involving civilians was significantly associated with increased deaths (β = 1.342).

Conclusion: CRSV in Africa is widespread and patterned by conflict dynamics and perpetrator type. These findings call for the strengthening of survivor-centered policy responses, improved data systems, and legal accountability mechanisms to address CRSV as a barrier to peace and development.