Time series and factors associated with prematurity in live births in curitiba, brazil: time series analysis between the years 2000 and 2021.

Background: Prematurity stands as the primary cause of mortality among children under the age of five globally, defined as childbirth occurring before the completion of the 37th week of pregnancy. The study aims to examine the historical prevalence and temporal trend of prematurity in Curitiba (PR) from 2000 to 2021, considering factors associated with the mother, child, and pregnancy.

Methods: This quantitative, descriptive, and analytical study employs a time series approach, utilizing data from the "COOSMIC - Curitiba Maternal and Child Health Cohort" study conducted by the Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná in collaboration with the Curitiba Municipal Health Department. Data sourced from the Live Birth Information System (SINASC) focuses on variables including baby's sex, mother's age, schooling, and marital status, gestational age at delivery, single or multiple pregnancies, and prenatal care. In the first stage, prematurity serves as the dependent variable, while characteristics associated with the mother, child, and pregnancy are treated as independent variables over time/year using the Prais-Winsten regression model. In the second stage, the Poisson Regression model examines the association between Social Determinants of Health (SDH) and preterm births.

Results: The analysis reveals an increasing trend in the prevalence of preterm births, with an Annual Significant Rate (ASR) of 2.4% (95%CI = 1.8; 3.0). Rising trends are observed across all stratifications examined, except for women lacking prenatal care visits.

Conclusion: Despite the initial low historical prevalence, an upward trend in prematurity is observed. Factors such as maternal age, schooling, marital status, gestational history, and prenatal care are identified as associated factors, highlighting the necessity for targeted interventions.