Phylogenetically close alien Asteraceae species with minimal niche overlap are more likely to invade.

Predicting whether alien species will invade a native community is a key challenge in invasion ecology. One factor that may help predict invasion success is phylogenetic relatedness. Darwin proposed that closely related species tend to share similar niches, although this relationship may be influenced by various ecological and evolutionary factors. To test this, we classified alien Asteraceae species in China into three categories based on their invasion status and the extent of ecological damage: introduced, naturalized, and invasive. We then compared the genetic relationships and niche overlap between alien and native Asteraceae species. We found that invasive Asteraceae species are more closely related to native Asteraceae species than are introduced and naturalized species. However, alien Asteraceae species (including introduced, naturalized, and invasive species) exhibited relatively low niche overlap with native Asteraceae species. These findings suggest that the main premise underlying Darwin's naturalization conundrum, namely, the universality of phylogenetic niche conservatism, may not hold true. Instead, our findings indicate that alien species are more likely to invade successfully when they are more closely related to native plants, exhibit less niche overlap, and maintain conservative niches during the invasion process. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms of alien plant invasions, highlight the relationship between alien species invasions and native community vulnerability, and offer important insights into the development of effective biological invasion management strategies.