A small step, giant savings: the impact of physical activity on dementia cases and economic costs in Brazil.

Objective: To estimate the potential impact of physical activity (PA) on the forecast prevalence and economic cost of dementia among Brazilian adults.

Methods: We analyzed data from the 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey to estimate PA levels. Dementia-related costs in 2019 were combined with prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated dementia cases and costs that could be averted if physical inactivity (<150 minutes/week of moderate-to-vigorous PA) were eliminated. A counterfactual scenario assessed the effect of small increases in moderate (MPA) or vigorous (VPA) PA per week in adults who currently engage in zero minutes of PA per week.

Results: In 2019, 14.9% of dementia cases in Brazil were attributable to physical inactivity, corresponding to 569,548 preventable cases by 2050. This would translate into R$23.1 billion (i.e., US$9.3 billion) in avoidable economic burden, of which R$20.2 billion are direct healthcare costs. In adults with zero minutes of PA, increasing MPA or VPA by 10 minutes/day could prevent 219,412 and 420,180 cases and save R$8.5 and 16.2 billion by 2050, respectively.

Conclusions: In Brazil, one in seven dementia cases is linked to physical inactivity. Modest increases in PA could yield major health and economic benefits.