{"title":"日本2024年首次结节性皮肤病暴发的描述性流行病学分析","authors":"Yoko Hayama, Ryosuke Omori, Ryota Matsuyama, Sonoko Kondo, Emi Yamaguchi, Yuzu Kamata, Takehisa Yamamoto","doi":"10.1155/tbed/8488125","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary emerging disease of cattle and water buffaloes that threatens the livestock industry globally. Japan experienced its first outbreak in November 2024. This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of this outbreak and estimate the transmissibility using a mathematical model for within-farm transmission. The first and second cases were confirmed on dairy farms in Itoshima City, Fukuoka Prefecture, southern Japan, on November 6, 2024. Twenty-two farms were confirmed during this outbreak, with 17 cases in Itoshima City and the other two municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture. The third case occurred in Kumamoto Prefecture on November 8, 2024, and was linked to the long-distance movement of potentially infected cattle via the livestock market from the first case on October 18, 2024. Two additional cases were detected near the third case. Control measures included isolation and voluntary culling of infected cattle; voluntary movement restrictions on infected, suspected, and apparently healthy cattle on the same premises; and voluntary suspension of the raw milk and semen shipments from infected and suspected animals. These measures were voluntary; however, no violations were reported. Vector control was achieved with insecticides and insect-proof netting. Voluntary vaccination was conducted within a 20 km radius of affected farms in Fukuoka Prefecture. Mathematical modeling of within-farm transmission dynamics revealed a transmission rate of 0.0031 (95% CI: 0.002–0.0044) per day. The basic reproduction number was 3.51 (95% CI: 2.26–4.98) based on a herd size of 49 and an infectious period of 23.1 days. Although the outbreak was geographically limited, this study highlights key epidemiological features of LSD, including its high transmission rate and long-distance transmission via cattle movement. Japan has a persisting LSD virus (LSDV)incursion risk due to recent outbreaks in Asia. Strengthening preparedness, including awareness among farmers and veterinarians, emergency vaccination plans, vector control, traceability, and quarantine protocols for cattle movement, is essential to mitigate future outbreaks.</p>","PeriodicalId":234,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"2025 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1155/tbed/8488125","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Descriptive Epidemiological Analysis for the First Outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease in Japan in 2024\",\"authors\":\"Yoko Hayama, Ryosuke Omori, Ryota Matsuyama, Sonoko Kondo, Emi Yamaguchi, Yuzu Kamata, Takehisa Yamamoto\",\"doi\":\"10.1155/tbed/8488125\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary emerging disease of cattle and water buffaloes that threatens the livestock industry globally. Japan experienced its first outbreak in November 2024. This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of this outbreak and estimate the transmissibility using a mathematical model for within-farm transmission. The first and second cases were confirmed on dairy farms in Itoshima City, Fukuoka Prefecture, southern Japan, on November 6, 2024. Twenty-two farms were confirmed during this outbreak, with 17 cases in Itoshima City and the other two municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture. The third case occurred in Kumamoto Prefecture on November 8, 2024, and was linked to the long-distance movement of potentially infected cattle via the livestock market from the first case on October 18, 2024. Two additional cases were detected near the third case. Control measures included isolation and voluntary culling of infected cattle; voluntary movement restrictions on infected, suspected, and apparently healthy cattle on the same premises; and voluntary suspension of the raw milk and semen shipments from infected and suspected animals. These measures were voluntary; however, no violations were reported. Vector control was achieved with insecticides and insect-proof netting. Voluntary vaccination was conducted within a 20 km radius of affected farms in Fukuoka Prefecture. Mathematical modeling of within-farm transmission dynamics revealed a transmission rate of 0.0031 (95% CI: 0.002–0.0044) per day. The basic reproduction number was 3.51 (95% CI: 2.26–4.98) based on a herd size of 49 and an infectious period of 23.1 days. Although the outbreak was geographically limited, this study highlights key epidemiological features of LSD, including its high transmission rate and long-distance transmission via cattle movement. Japan has a persisting LSD virus (LSDV)incursion risk due to recent outbreaks in Asia. Strengthening preparedness, including awareness among farmers and veterinarians, emergency vaccination plans, vector control, traceability, and quarantine protocols for cattle movement, is essential to mitigate future outbreaks.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":234,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases\",\"volume\":\"2025 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1155/tbed/8488125\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1155/tbed/8488125\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1155/tbed/8488125","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Descriptive Epidemiological Analysis for the First Outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease in Japan in 2024
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary emerging disease of cattle and water buffaloes that threatens the livestock industry globally. Japan experienced its first outbreak in November 2024. This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of this outbreak and estimate the transmissibility using a mathematical model for within-farm transmission. The first and second cases were confirmed on dairy farms in Itoshima City, Fukuoka Prefecture, southern Japan, on November 6, 2024. Twenty-two farms were confirmed during this outbreak, with 17 cases in Itoshima City and the other two municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture. The third case occurred in Kumamoto Prefecture on November 8, 2024, and was linked to the long-distance movement of potentially infected cattle via the livestock market from the first case on October 18, 2024. Two additional cases were detected near the third case. Control measures included isolation and voluntary culling of infected cattle; voluntary movement restrictions on infected, suspected, and apparently healthy cattle on the same premises; and voluntary suspension of the raw milk and semen shipments from infected and suspected animals. These measures were voluntary; however, no violations were reported. Vector control was achieved with insecticides and insect-proof netting. Voluntary vaccination was conducted within a 20 km radius of affected farms in Fukuoka Prefecture. Mathematical modeling of within-farm transmission dynamics revealed a transmission rate of 0.0031 (95% CI: 0.002–0.0044) per day. The basic reproduction number was 3.51 (95% CI: 2.26–4.98) based on a herd size of 49 and an infectious period of 23.1 days. Although the outbreak was geographically limited, this study highlights key epidemiological features of LSD, including its high transmission rate and long-distance transmission via cattle movement. Japan has a persisting LSD virus (LSDV)incursion risk due to recent outbreaks in Asia. Strengthening preparedness, including awareness among farmers and veterinarians, emergency vaccination plans, vector control, traceability, and quarantine protocols for cattle movement, is essential to mitigate future outbreaks.
期刊介绍：
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases brings together in one place the latest research on infectious diseases considered to hold the greatest economic threat to animals and humans worldwide. The journal provides a venue for global research on their diagnosis, prevention and management, and for papers on public health, pathogenesis, epidemiology, statistical modeling, diagnostics, biosecurity issues, genomics, vaccine development and rapid communication of new outbreaks. Papers should include timely research approaches using state-of-the-art technologies. The editors encourage papers adopting a science-based approach on socio-economic and environmental factors influencing the management of the bio-security threat posed by these diseases, including risk analysis and disease spread modeling. Preference will be given to communications focusing on novel science-based approaches to controlling transboundary and emerging diseases. The following topics are generally considered out-of-scope, but decisions are made on a case-by-case basis (for example, studies on cryptic wildlife populations, and those on potential species extinctions):
Pathogen discovery: a common pathogen newly recognised in a specific country, or a new pathogen or genetic sequence for which there is little context about — or insights regarding — its emergence or spread.
Prevalence estimation surveys and risk factor studies based on survey (rather than longitudinal) methodology, except when such studies are unique. Surveys of knowledge, attitudes and practices are within scope.
Diagnostic test development if not accompanied by robust sensitivity and specificity estimation from field studies.
Studies focused only on laboratory methods in which relevance to disease emergence and spread is not obvious or can not be inferred (“pure research” type studies).
Narrative literature reviews which do not generate new knowledge. Systematic and scoping reviews, and meta-analyses are within scope.
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