What's in Your Soil? A Citywide Investigation of the Importance of Soil Lead for Predicting Elevated Blood Lead Levels in Chicago

Lead exposure remains a persistent environmental health threat. Soil contamination is recognized as an overlooked yet critical reservoir of childhood lead exposure due to a legacy of historical lead use in gasoline, paint, and industry. However, it is unclear whether measuring soil lead is an effective way to screen for risk at the community or neighborhood level, nor if soil lead is a significant predictor of elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) beyond other socioeconomic and physical environment covariates. Building on prior soil sampling and conducting extensive citywide sampling and analysis, we assemble the largest data set of soil lead to date (n = 1,750) in Chicago. Combined with BLL data reported by the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH), municipal data, and census data, we investigated the association between soil lead concentrations, predicted BLLs from the EPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model, and EBLL from CDPH blood testing among children in Chicago at the community area scale. We present city-scale soil lead and IEUBK risk maps for Chicago. Furthermore, while median household income remains the strongest single predictor of EBLL prevalence in our models, we provide evidence that soil lead independently contributes significant predictive power. Our findings position systematic soil monitoring as a practical tool for primary prevention, complementing existing prevention and intervention strategies and accelerating progress toward safer cities.