Regulating regional resource environmental effect through systematic integration of nexus-based environmental carrying capacity and multiple environmental footprints

This study investigates the resource environmental effect (REE) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration from a multi-factor perspective, in which the past-to-future environmental carrying capacity (ECC) based on water–land–energy–food nexus and multiple environmental footprints are evaluated under uncertainty. The three-dimensional Rubik’s cube model is utilized to categorize the region into distinct units for REE regulation. Results reveal a sustained increase in REE and environmental pressure (EEP), growing by 9.92 % and 5.38 % in the future, respectively. The ECC remains in a moderately disharmonious state, with its trajectory expected to shift from past growth to future decline. Land and energy subsystems are the primary constraints on resource and environmental improvement, contributing 51.39 % and 27.95 % to the total REE, respectively. The urban agglomeration’s northern area exhibits a higher REE than the southern area. Uncertainty analysis reveals that lowering the indicator threshold improves the overall ECC and REE, which change by +7 % and –5 %, respectively. In contrast, increasing the threshold leads to a notable degradation, with changes of –23 % and +26 %, respectively. Notably, the energy subsystem demonstrates opposite responses to these adjustments. Qinhuangdao, Zhangjiakou, Chengde, Langfang, and Hengshui characterized by high REE and low ECC (high EEP) should be prioritized for regulation. The overall REE in Beijing and Tianjin is relatively low; however, the carrying capacity of their water, land, and food subsystems poses a potential risk to regional development. These findings can offer a scientific basis for safeguarding resource security and fostering harmony between human activities and nature.