城市抵御新冠肺炎疫情的路径依赖:初始入侵背景和城市规模结构的作用

IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES
Ningyezi Peng , Xintao Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

COVID-19变体不断出现,城市抵御其入侵的能力往往取决于这些变体能否在城市人口中持续传播,这可能导致新的疫情爆发或它们的灭绝。在这一过程中,城市尺度结构起着至关重要的作用,它控制着地方之间的相互作用,并共同塑造了尺度分布的流动模式。本研究建立了一个基于空间显式主体的模型,以探索新变种的起源如何影响随后的传播动态。我们发现,初始入侵地点的微小差异对恢复力结果具有路径依赖效应。结构上更重要的地方更容易发生新的疫情。然而,令人惊讶的是,起源于结构上不太重要的地方的疫情在早期传播时表现出更大的爆炸性。这种早期传播优势可归因于生存偏差:来自不利环境的入侵必须更有活力才能保证成功突破。然而,这种早期传播的优势并没有持续下去,因为早期传播的更分散的波可能导致在随后的传播进程中更大的能量损失。这些发现强调了密切关注城市系统中微小但关键因素的必要性,因为随着时间的推移,这些因素可能会累积起来,引发意想不到的中断,并影响城市应对未来挑战的方式。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Path dependency of urban resilience to recurring COVID-19 waves: the role of initial invasion contexts and urban scaling structure
COVID-19 variants had emerged continuously and urban resilience to their invasion often relies on whether these variants can sustain transmission within urban population—potentially leading to new outbreaks or their extinction. In this process, the urban scaling structure that governs how local places interact and collectively shape scaling-distributed mobility patterns plays a critical role. This study built a spatially explicit agent-based model to explore how the origin place of new variants can influence subsequent transmission dynamics. We found small differences in initial invasion places had path-dependent effects on resilience outcomes. Structurally more important places can facilitate the occurrence of new outbreaks. However, surprisingly, outbreaks originated in structurally less important places show more explosive early spread. This early spread advantage can be attributed to survivorship bias: invasions originating from the less favourable environments had to be more vigorous to guarantee successful breakthroughs. Nevertheless, this early spread advantage was not sustained because the more dispersed waves of early spread may lead to greater energy loss in subsequent spread progression. These findings highlight the need to pay close attention to small but critical factors in urban systems, as they can accumulate over time to trigger unexpected disruptions and shape how cities respond to future challenges.
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来源期刊
Cities
Cities URBAN STUDIES-
CiteScore
11.20
自引率
9.00%
发文量
517
期刊介绍: Cities offers a comprehensive range of articles on all aspects of urban policy. It provides an international and interdisciplinary platform for the exchange of ideas and information between urban planners and policy makers from national and local government, non-government organizations, academia and consultancy. The primary aims of the journal are to analyse and assess past and present urban development and management as a reflection of effective, ineffective and non-existent planning policies; and the promotion of the implementation of appropriate urban policies in both the developed and the developing world.
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