{"title":"城市抵御新冠肺炎疫情的路径依赖:初始入侵背景和城市规模结构的作用","authors":"Ningyezi Peng , Xintao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106520","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>COVID-19 variants had emerged continuously and urban resilience to their invasion often relies on whether these variants can sustain transmission within urban population—potentially leading to new outbreaks or their extinction. In this process, the urban scaling structure that governs how local places interact and collectively shape scaling-distributed mobility patterns plays a critical role. This study built a spatially explicit agent-based model to explore how the origin place of new variants can influence subsequent transmission dynamics. We found small differences in initial invasion places had path-dependent effects on resilience outcomes. Structurally more important places can facilitate the occurrence of new outbreaks. However, surprisingly, outbreaks originated in structurally less important places show more explosive early spread. This early spread advantage can be attributed to survivorship bias: invasions originating from the less favourable environments had to be more vigorous to guarantee successful breakthroughs. Nevertheless, this early spread advantage was not sustained because the more dispersed waves of early spread may lead to greater energy loss in subsequent spread progression. These findings highlight the need to pay close attention to small but critical factors in urban systems, as they can accumulate over time to trigger unexpected disruptions and shape how cities respond to future challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 106520"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Path dependency of urban resilience to recurring COVID-19 waves: the role of initial invasion contexts and urban scaling structure\",\"authors\":\"Ningyezi Peng , Xintao Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106520\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>COVID-19 variants had emerged continuously and urban resilience to their invasion often relies on whether these variants can sustain transmission within urban population—potentially leading to new outbreaks or their extinction. In this process, the urban scaling structure that governs how local places interact and collectively shape scaling-distributed mobility patterns plays a critical role. This study built a spatially explicit agent-based model to explore how the origin place of new variants can influence subsequent transmission dynamics. We found small differences in initial invasion places had path-dependent effects on resilience outcomes. Structurally more important places can facilitate the occurrence of new outbreaks. However, surprisingly, outbreaks originated in structurally less important places show more explosive early spread. This early spread advantage can be attributed to survivorship bias: invasions originating from the less favourable environments had to be more vigorous to guarantee successful breakthroughs. Nevertheless, this early spread advantage was not sustained because the more dispersed waves of early spread may lead to greater energy loss in subsequent spread progression. These findings highlight the need to pay close attention to small but critical factors in urban systems, as they can accumulate over time to trigger unexpected disruptions and shape how cities respond to future challenges.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48405,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cities\",\"volume\":\"169 \",\"pages\":\"Article 106520\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cities\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275125008236\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"URBAN STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cities","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275125008236","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"URBAN STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Path dependency of urban resilience to recurring COVID-19 waves: the role of initial invasion contexts and urban scaling structure
COVID-19 variants had emerged continuously and urban resilience to their invasion often relies on whether these variants can sustain transmission within urban population—potentially leading to new outbreaks or their extinction. In this process, the urban scaling structure that governs how local places interact and collectively shape scaling-distributed mobility patterns plays a critical role. This study built a spatially explicit agent-based model to explore how the origin place of new variants can influence subsequent transmission dynamics. We found small differences in initial invasion places had path-dependent effects on resilience outcomes. Structurally more important places can facilitate the occurrence of new outbreaks. However, surprisingly, outbreaks originated in structurally less important places show more explosive early spread. This early spread advantage can be attributed to survivorship bias: invasions originating from the less favourable environments had to be more vigorous to guarantee successful breakthroughs. Nevertheless, this early spread advantage was not sustained because the more dispersed waves of early spread may lead to greater energy loss in subsequent spread progression. These findings highlight the need to pay close attention to small but critical factors in urban systems, as they can accumulate over time to trigger unexpected disruptions and shape how cities respond to future challenges.
期刊介绍:
Cities offers a comprehensive range of articles on all aspects of urban policy. It provides an international and interdisciplinary platform for the exchange of ideas and information between urban planners and policy makers from national and local government, non-government organizations, academia and consultancy. The primary aims of the journal are to analyse and assess past and present urban development and management as a reflection of effective, ineffective and non-existent planning policies; and the promotion of the implementation of appropriate urban policies in both the developed and the developing world.