不平等的涟漪效应：分析其对德国、日本和美国自然利率和货币政策的影响

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107197

Mariam Camarero , Gilles Dufrénot , Cecilio Tamarit , Etienne Vaccaro-Grange

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了在过去20年里，不同形式的不平等如何影响美国、德国和日本的潜在增长和自然利率。日益严重的不平等现象可能会阻碍这些经济体在大衰退和新冠肺炎大流行后的复苏。为此，我们修改了Holston、Laubach和Williams（2017）提出的半结构模型，考虑了几个不等式的影响。我们对潜在增长率和自然利率进行了联合估计，结果表明，自然利率可以显著地改变实际利率的时间路径，而实际利率在经济充分发展和通胀稳定时普遍存在。最后，我们研究了我们的估计对货币当局的反应函数的影响。

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Inequality’s ripple effect: Analyzing its influence on the natural interest rate and monetary policy in Germany, Japan, and the US

This paper analyzes how different forms of inequality have affected potential growth and the natural interest rate in the U.S., Germany, and Japan during the last two decades. Growing inequalities may constitute a drawback for the recovery of these economies after the Great Recession (GR) and the Covid-19 pandemic. To this aim, we modify the semi-structural model proposed by Holston, Laubach and Williams (2017) by considering the effects of several inequalities. We jointly estimate potential growth and the natural interest rates, showing that the latter can substantially modify the time path of the real interest rate, which prevails when economies are at full strength and inflation is stable. Finally, we study the effects of our estimates on the reaction functions of the monetary authorities.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

9.10%

发文量

392

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.