Covid-19大流行和墨西哥人群的主要合并症:复杂网络方法

IF 3.1 3区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
J.J. Esquivel-Gómez, J.G. Barajas-Ramírez
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引用次数: 0

摘要

检疫和疫苗接种政策是用来减轻传染病传播的最有效机制之一。文献中提出了许多流行病模型。然而,为了对传播和感染过程产生更现实的情景,流行病模型应考虑到个体之间的相互作用,并结合年龄和健康等具体特征。从这个意义上说,我们提出了一个SVIQRS流行病模型,该模型实现了墨西哥人口的特定特征,如年龄分布和患有高血压、肥胖和糖尿病等慢性疾病的人的百分比。我们的模型能够再现上届msamxico Covid-19大流行的一些可用统计数据,模拟疾病在度分布为P(k) ~ k−2.5的复杂网络中的传播。特别是,它密切再现了Covid-19感染者和患有糖尿病的感染者的分布情况。此外,我们的模型通过随机模拟表明,对慢性疾病患者进行隔离和接种疫苗是防止感染个体增加和避免卫生系统超载的适当策略。采用这种方法,受感染人数增长缓慢,从而防止卫生系统超载。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Covid-19 pandemic and main comorbidities in Mexican population a complex network approach
Quarantine and vaccination policies are among the most effective mechanisms used to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases. Numerous epidemic models are proposed in the literature. However, in order to produce more realistic scenarios regarding the transmission and infection processes, epidemic models should take into account the interaction among the individuals in combination with specific characteristics like age and health. In this sense, we propose a SVIQRS epidemic model that implements particular characteristics from the Mexican population, like the age distribution and the percentage of people suffering from a chronic illness like high blood pressure, obesity, and diabetes. Our model is capable of reproducing some available statistics from the last Covid-19 pandemic in México, simulating the disease spread in a complex network with degree distribution P(k)k2.5. In particular, it reproduces closely the distributions of Covid-19 infected individuals and infected individuals who also suffer from diabetes. Additionally, our model indicates through stochastic simulations that the isolation and vaccination of people suffering chronic diseases is an appropriate strategy to prevent the increase in infected individuals and avoid the overloading of health systems. Following this approach, the number of infected individuals grows slowly, preventing the overloading of health systems.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
9.10%
发文量
852
审稿时长
6.6 months
期刊介绍: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications Recognized by the European Physical Society Physica A publishes research in the field of statistical mechanics and its applications. Statistical mechanics sets out to explain the behaviour of macroscopic systems by studying the statistical properties of their microscopic constituents. Applications of the techniques of statistical mechanics are widespread, and include: applications to physical systems such as solids, liquids and gases; applications to chemical and biological systems (colloids, interfaces, complex fluids, polymers and biopolymers, cell physics); and other interdisciplinary applications to for instance biological, economical and sociological systems.
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