Kaiyuan Liu , Yongxiang Xia , Chengyi Xia , Haicheng Tu
{"title":"异质性对供应链网络风险传播的影响","authors":"Kaiyuan Liu , Yongxiang Xia , Chengyi Xia , Haicheng Tu","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.131021","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the highly interconnected global economy, risk propagation in supply chain networks has garnered significant attention due to its profound impact. Based on complex network theory, this paper proposes a Degree-Dependent Heterogeneous Risk Propagation (DDHRP) model, in which risk is represented as a binary state within a susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) framework: a firm is either infected or susceptible. By use of mean-field equations, we derive the risk propagation threshold and the infection probability under varying basic propagation rates <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>, and analyze how different heterogeneity parameters affect the distribution of infection probability across degrees of nodes. Experimental simulations show that the monotonicity of a node’s infection probability with respect to node degree can be controlled by adjusting model parameters. Moreover, increasing heterogeneity in risk transmission reduces the average infection prevalence across nodes, whereas greater heterogeneity in risk recovery increases it. Our research not only offers a heterogeneous risk propagation model adapted for supply chain networks, but also provides a theoretical foundation for risk early warning and control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"679 ","pages":"Article 131021"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Impact of heterogeneity on risk propagation in supply chain networks\",\"authors\":\"Kaiyuan Liu , Yongxiang Xia , Chengyi Xia , Haicheng Tu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.physa.2025.131021\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>In the highly interconnected global economy, risk propagation in supply chain networks has garnered significant attention due to its profound impact. Based on complex network theory, this paper proposes a Degree-Dependent Heterogeneous Risk Propagation (DDHRP) model, in which risk is represented as a binary state within a susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) framework: a firm is either infected or susceptible. By use of mean-field equations, we derive the risk propagation threshold and the infection probability under varying basic propagation rates <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>, and analyze how different heterogeneity parameters affect the distribution of infection probability across degrees of nodes. Experimental simulations show that the monotonicity of a node’s infection probability with respect to node degree can be controlled by adjusting model parameters. Moreover, increasing heterogeneity in risk transmission reduces the average infection prevalence across nodes, whereas greater heterogeneity in risk recovery increases it. Our research not only offers a heterogeneous risk propagation model adapted for supply chain networks, but also provides a theoretical foundation for risk early warning and control.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20152,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications\",\"volume\":\"679 \",\"pages\":\"Article 131021\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"101\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437125006739\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"物理与天体物理\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437125006739","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Impact of heterogeneity on risk propagation in supply chain networks
In the highly interconnected global economy, risk propagation in supply chain networks has garnered significant attention due to its profound impact. Based on complex network theory, this paper proposes a Degree-Dependent Heterogeneous Risk Propagation (DDHRP) model, in which risk is represented as a binary state within a susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) framework: a firm is either infected or susceptible. By use of mean-field equations, we derive the risk propagation threshold and the infection probability under varying basic propagation rates , and analyze how different heterogeneity parameters affect the distribution of infection probability across degrees of nodes. Experimental simulations show that the monotonicity of a node’s infection probability with respect to node degree can be controlled by adjusting model parameters. Moreover, increasing heterogeneity in risk transmission reduces the average infection prevalence across nodes, whereas greater heterogeneity in risk recovery increases it. Our research not only offers a heterogeneous risk propagation model adapted for supply chain networks, but also provides a theoretical foundation for risk early warning and control.
期刊介绍:
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Recognized by the European Physical Society
Physica A publishes research in the field of statistical mechanics and its applications.
Statistical mechanics sets out to explain the behaviour of macroscopic systems by studying the statistical properties of their microscopic constituents.
Applications of the techniques of statistical mechanics are widespread, and include: applications to physical systems such as solids, liquids and gases; applications to chemical and biological systems (colloids, interfaces, complex fluids, polymers and biopolymers, cell physics); and other interdisciplinary applications to for instance biological, economical and sociological systems.