伊朗电力部门转型：到2040年可再生能源加速和碳捕获战略的系统动力学分析

IF 4.4 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.102062

Mohammad-Mahdi Pazuki , Mohsen Salimi , Nasser Safaie , Majid Amidpour

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究开发了一个技术-经济-环境系统动力学模型，以评估到2040年伊朗的电力部门。该模型整合了可再生能源扩张、计量需求预测、气候变化反馈和碳捕获政策，以评估发电、需求、排放和经济结果。在目前的政策下，化石燃料依赖度仍为94%，二氧化碳排放量达到2.20.11亿吨。适度的可再生能源加速将可再生能源发电量翻一番，达到63785千兆瓦时/年，出口收入恢复到9.102亿美元，化石燃料使用量减少8.7%。碳捕获实现了36%的减排，使二氧化碳低于2020年的水平。研究结果为平衡能源安全、竞争力和减缓气候变化提供了路线图。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Transitioning Iran's electricity sector: A system dynamics analysis of renewable energy acceleration and carbon capture strategies to 2040

This study develops a techno-economic-environmental system dynamics model to evaluate Iran's electricity sector through 2040. The model integrates renewable expansion, econometric demand forecasting, climate change feedbacks, and carbon capture policies to assess generation, demand, emissions, and economic outcomes. Under current policy, fossil fuel dependency remains 94 % and CO₂ emissions reach 220.11 Mt. Moderate renewable acceleration doubles renewable generation to 63,785 GWh/year, restores export income to 910.2 M USD, and cuts fossil fuel use by 8.7 %. Carbon capture achieves a 36 % emission reduction, bringing CO₂ below 2020 levels. Results provide a roadmap for balancing energy security, competitiveness, and climate mitigation.

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.