System dynamics modeling of social sustainability in circular construction transitions: Causal loop analysis of stakeholder engagement mechanisms from selected developing countries' perspective

The construction industry's transition toward circular economy principles in developing countries faces significant implementation challenges, with existing research predominantly focusing on technical and economic dimensions while critically neglecting social impact mechanisms and community-level consequences that determine long-term sustainability outcomes. This study developed a comprehensive system dynamics framework to analyze complex interdependencies between circular construction practices and social outcomes in developing country contexts, employing mixed-methods methodology integrating systematic literature review, expert surveys (N = 134), and dynamic modeling to examine causal relationships governing community well-being, employment generation, and social equity. Through factor prioritization analysis of 61 expert responses and statistical examination of 210 cause-effect relationships, the research identified 20 statistically significant causal connections (mean values 4.0–5.0) and developed validated system dynamics models comprising four reinforcing loops and two balancing loops. Key findings revealed Local Employment as the highest-ranked social factor (normalized score 0.0582), demonstrated accelerating Community Education patterns indicating compounding returns, and established that developing countries exhibit greater dependence on government responsiveness versus market-driven mechanisms documented in European contexts. This research provides essential theoretical foundations for socially inclusive circular construction implementation strategies while offering validated system dynamics methodology for analyzing complex social-technical transitions in resource-constrained environments.