China's green leadership in international aviation: Spatial patterns, influence factors and future trends of carbon emission under the Belt and Road Initiative

Globalization and international cooperation have significantly increased aviation demand and its associated carbon emissions, particularly within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which involves over 150 countries. However, limited attention has been given to assessing the impacts and future projections of the BRI on aviation emissions. This study integrated multisource big data, Geodetector, and cross-classified multilevel modeling to quantify the interaction effects of the BRI and natural–anthropogenic factors on China's international aviation carbon emissions in 2019, and to predicted patterns and trends for 2030. Results showed that total aviation carbon emissions reached 16.36 Mt. in 2019, with emissions mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Western Europe. Furthermore, BRI-related trade volume and infrastructure investment, interaction with GDP, population, and airport construction explained 87 % of aviation carbon emissions. Projections indicated that total emissions will increase by 35.8 % from 2019 to 2030 under the BRI, while emissions per unit of GDP and per capita emissions are expected to decline by 68.1 % and 56.6 %, respectively, with Gini indices decreasing by 21 % and 36 %. BRI countries should establish more active green and low-carbon aviation co-operations and optimize flight routes to promote low-carbon development for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.