Large Carnivores Persisting in a Human-Dominated Landscape: Suitable Habitat and Connectivity for Asiatic Black Bears in China

This study examined the connectivity between the current suitable habitat and the core habitat for Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) in human-dominated landscapes and aimed to provide a basis for future conservation strategies for black bear populations in China. We collected occurrence locations (N = 130) of Asiatic black bears from 2014 to 2023, with data sources spanning 12 provincial administrative regions and covering an area of about 3,010,000 km². We predicted the distribution of suitable habitats for Asiatic black bears via the MaxEnt species distribution model using a combination of multiple environmental variables such as topography, vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic disturbances. We performed habitat corridor planning by using the least-cost path model and circuit theory. The results suggested that (1) Asiatic black bears have a marked preference for mountainous environments with middle and high altitude (> 1000 m), high amounts of precipitation (> 200 mm), and dense vegetation, and they generally avoid areas of anthropogenic disturbance. (2) The suitable habitats for Asiatic black bears showed a highly fragmented pattern, mainly concentrated along the borders of Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, and Jiangxi (the Zhe–Gan Region), the borders of Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hunan (the Hu–Guang Region), and the borders of Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou, and Sichuan (the Chuan–Shaan Region). Of the predicted 372,483 km² of suitable habitat, only 23.65% is currently covered by protected and conserved areas. (3) A comprehensive landscape connectivity analysis identified 79 core habitat patches encompassing a total area of 33,257 km². Notably, only 29.29% of these patches are currently under protection. Furthermore, we delineated 79 potential least-cost paths, each with an average length of 43.66 km, and identified pinch points along these pathways that could impede connectivity. To ensure the long-term survival of Asiatic black bear populations, we recommend enhancing the protection and restoration efforts for the three core habitats and their associated potential connectivity pathways.