Prediction of Potential Distribution of Seven Plant Species of Aster (Asteraceae) Based on MaxEnt Model

Aster (Asteraceae) species as one of the traditional Tibetan medicinal plants in China have high useful medicinal and unique ornamental value; the market demand has been gradually increasing. In this study, seven species of Aster were selected from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the MaxEnt model was used to investigate their potential distribution in China and the changes in their suitable habitat under future climate conditions based on the current survey and distribution data of specimens on the site and six to eight environmental variables. The results showed that temperature and precipitation were important limiting factors affecting the distribution of Aster, and Bio2, Bio3, and Bio10 were common environmental factors influencing the factors of Aster species. Under the current climate, the mainly potential distributed region of the seven Aster species in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau exists. Under projected future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats of A. asteroides and A. diplostephioides will shrink significantly, while those of A. farreri, A. poliothamnus, A. souliei, A. tongolensis, and A. yunnanensis var. labrangensis will expand accordingly. Environmental factors provide a large gain in predicting the distribution of Aster species. Among the environmental variables, isothermality (Bio3) induced the largest impact on SDM and contained the most useful information for A. diplostephioides (55.9%), A. souliei (41.5%) and A. yunnanensis var. labrangensis (27.1%), while A. tongolensis (27.9%) and A. poliothamnus (26.8%) were more significantly affected by the temperature seasonality (Bio4); A. asteroides (66.3%) and A. farreri (21%) were more significantly affected by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio10). The study findings suggest that the distribution range of seven species of Aster will be greatly impacted by climate change. This research helps identify the limiting factors affecting the natural distribution and potential suitable areas for Aster species, which can inform conservation efforts, plant introduction, acclimatization, domestication, and cultivation of Aster.