基于AirQ +模型的PM2.5变化评估及PM2.5长期暴露死亡率估算

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI:10.1007/s11270-025-08554-2

Seren Acarer Arat

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本研究的第一阶段，研究了2021 - 2023年期间， rkiye重工业城市之一Kocaeli空气质量监测站的24小时（日）平均PM2.5浓度超标天数、月平均PM2.5浓度、年平均PM2.5浓度以及PM2.5的季节变化。在本研究的第二阶段，使用AirQ +软件估计2021年、2022年和2023年Kocaeli市因长期暴露于PM2.5而导致的≥30岁成年人过早死亡。科采里市2021年、2022年和2023年PM2.5年均浓度分别为19.17±2.46、19.12±1.52和19.63±1.98µg/m3，分别是WHO推荐限值的3.83、3.82和3.93倍。AirQ +模型结果显示，2023年、2022年和2021年，科卡埃利市分别有1059（705 - 1376）、1051（699 - 1369）和1174（780 - 1530）例自然死亡与暴露于环境PM2.5污染有关。2023年、2022年和2021年，Kocaeli市11.71%（7.8 ~ 15.22%）、10.67%（7.09 ~ 13.89%）和10.25%（6.81 ~ 13.35%）的自然原因死亡与长期暴露于环境PM2.5污染有关。如果科凯埃利市的PM2.5浓度没有超过世卫组织建议的极限值，三年内与长期接触PM2.5有关的平均3284例过早死亡本来是可以避免的。图形抽象

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Assessment of PM2.5 Variation and Estimation of Mortality Attributable to Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure Using the AirQ + Model in Kocaeli, Türkiye

In the first stage of this study, the number of days exceeding the limit value recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 24-h average (daily) PM2.5 concentration, the monthly average PM2.5 concentration, annual average PM2.5 concentration and seasonal variation of PM2.5 at air quality measurement stations in Kocaeli, one of the heavily industrialized cities of Türkiye, during 2021 − 2023 were investigated. In the second stage of this study, premature deaths in adults aged ≥ 30 years due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 in Kocaeli city for 2021, 2022 and 2023 were estimated using AirQ + software. The average annual PM2.5 concentration in Kocaeli city was 19.17 ± 2.46, 19.12 ± 1.52 and 19.63 ± 1.98 µg/m³ in 2021, 2022 and 2023, and these values were 3.83, 3.82 and 3.93 times higher than the recommended limit value by WHO, respectively. AirQ + model results showed that 1,059 (705 − 1,376), 1,051 (699 − 1,369) and 1,174 (780 − 1,530) all natural cause deaths in Kocaeli city in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively, were associated with exposure to ambient PM2.5 pollution. Moreover, 11.71% (7.8 − 15.22%), 10.67% (7.09 − 13.89%) and 10.25% (6.81 − 13.35%) of natural cause deaths in Kocaeli city were associated with long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 pollution in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively. An average of 3,284 premature deaths associated with long-term exposure to PM2.5 in three years could have been prevented if PM2.5 concentrations in Kocaeli city had not exceeded the WHO recommended limit value.

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来源期刊

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

6.90%

发文量

448

审稿时长

2.6 months

期刊介绍： Water, Air, & Soil Pollution is an international, interdisciplinary journal on all aspects of pollution and solutions to pollution in the biosphere. This includes chemical, physical and biological processes affecting flora, fauna, water, air and soil in relation to environmental pollution. Because of its scope, the subject areas are diverse and include all aspects of pollution sources, transport, deposition, accumulation, acid precipitation, atmospheric pollution, metals, aquatic pollution including marine pollution and ground water, waste water, pesticides, soil pollution, sewage, sediment pollution, forestry pollution, effects of pollutants on humans, vegetation, fish, aquatic species, micro-organisms, and animals, environmental and molecular toxicology applied to pollution research, biosensors, global and climate change, ecological implications of pollution and pollution models. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution also publishes manuscripts on novel methods used in the study of environmental pollutants, environmental toxicology, environmental biology, novel environmental engineering related to pollution, biodiversity as influenced by pollution, novel environmental biotechnology as applied to pollution (e.g. bioremediation), environmental modelling and biorestoration of polluted environments. Articles should not be submitted that are of local interest only and do not advance international knowledge in environmental pollution and solutions to pollution. Articles that simply replicate known knowledge or techniques while researching a local pollution problem will normally be rejected without review. Submitted articles must have up-to-date references, employ the correct experimental replication and statistical analysis, where needed and contain a significant contribution to new knowledge. The publishing and editorial team sincerely appreciate your cooperation. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution publishes research papers; review articles; mini-reviews; and book reviews.