Jason Silvestre, Joseph M Abbatematteo, Sydney Seeger, Charles A Reitman, Michael T Lawton
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Linear regression was used to analyze workforce trends.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 2025 to 2037, the supply of neurosurgeons was projected to increase from 7030 to 7230 (2.8% increase, P < .001). Over the same period, demand was projected to increase under status quo (7310 to 8310, 13.7% increase, P < .001) and improved access (10 210 to 11 830, 15.9% increase, P < .001) scenarios. Accordingly, neurosurgery workforce adequacy was projected to decrease under status quo (96.2% to 87.0%, P < .001) and improved access (68.9% to 61.1%, P < .001) scenarios. In 2025, neurosurgery workforce adequacy was lower in nonmetropolitan areas compared with metropolitan areas under the status quo (30.8% vs 101%, P < .001) and improved access (10.7% vs 78.8%, P < .001) scenarios. In 2025, the states with the lowest neurosurgery workforce adequacy were Nevada (42.9%), New Jersey (66.7%), and Indiana (73.3%). By 2037, the states with the lowest projected neurological surgery workforce adequacy were Delaware (33.3%), Nevada (37.5%), New Hampshire (50.0%), and Vermont (50.0%).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Projected inadequacies exist for the neurosurgery workforce, which are greatest in nonmetropolitan areas and certain US states. Future research is needed to develop strategies that improve neurosurgery workforce adequacy including training opportunities to increase the supply of future neurosurgeons.</p>","PeriodicalId":19276,"journal":{"name":"Neurosurgery","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Geographic Disparities in Neurosurgery Workforce Adequacy Across the United States: Projections to 2037.\",\"authors\":\"Jason Silvestre, Joseph M Abbatematteo, Sydney Seeger, Charles A Reitman, Michael T Lawton\",\"doi\":\"10.1227/neu.0000000000003762\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background and objectives: </strong>Studies on the adequacy of the neurosurgery workforce have been limited. The objectives of this study were to assess the supply, demand, and adequacy of the neurosurgery workforce in the United States.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This was a cross-sectional study of US neurosurgeons using data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model. Supply was defined as the number of full-time neurosurgeons working in the United States. Demand was defined as the number of full-time neurosurgeons needed to meet healthcare needs under status quo and improved access scenarios. Workforce adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply and demand. Linear regression was used to analyze workforce trends.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 2025 to 2037, the supply of neurosurgeons was projected to increase from 7030 to 7230 (2.8% increase, P < .001). Over the same period, demand was projected to increase under status quo (7310 to 8310, 13.7% increase, P < .001) and improved access (10 210 to 11 830, 15.9% increase, P < .001) scenarios. Accordingly, neurosurgery workforce adequacy was projected to decrease under status quo (96.2% to 87.0%, P < .001) and improved access (68.9% to 61.1%, P < .001) scenarios. In 2025, neurosurgery workforce adequacy was lower in nonmetropolitan areas compared with metropolitan areas under the status quo (30.8% vs 101%, P < .001) and improved access (10.7% vs 78.8%, P < .001) scenarios. In 2025, the states with the lowest neurosurgery workforce adequacy were Nevada (42.9%), New Jersey (66.7%), and Indiana (73.3%). By 2037, the states with the lowest projected neurological surgery workforce adequacy were Delaware (33.3%), Nevada (37.5%), New Hampshire (50.0%), and Vermont (50.0%).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Projected inadequacies exist for the neurosurgery workforce, which are greatest in nonmetropolitan areas and certain US states. Future research is needed to develop strategies that improve neurosurgery workforce adequacy including training opportunities to increase the supply of future neurosurgeons.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19276,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Neurosurgery\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-10-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Neurosurgery\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1227/neu.0000000000003762\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Neurosurgery","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1227/neu.0000000000003762","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
背景和目的：关于神经外科劳动力充足性的研究一直很有限。本研究的目的是评估美国神经外科劳动力的供应、需求和充分性。方法：这是一项对美国神经外科医生的横断面研究，使用来自卫生人力模拟模型的数据。供应被定义为在美国工作的全职神经外科医生的数量。需求被定义为满足现状和改善准入情况下医疗保健需求所需的全职神经外科医生的数量。劳动力充足性被定义为供给和需求的比率。采用线性回归分析劳动力趋势。结果：2025 - 2037年，神经外科医生供给量预计从7030人增加到7230人，增幅2.8%,P < 0.001。同期，在现状（7310至8310，增长13.7%,P < 0.001）和改善准入（10 210至11 830，增长15.9%,P < 0.001）的情况下，需求预计将增加。因此，在现有情况下（96.2%至87.0%,P < 0.001）和改善准入情况下（68.9%至61.1%,P < 0.001），预计神经外科劳动力充足性将下降。2025年，非大都市地区的神经外科劳动力充足性低于大都市地区（30.8% vs 101%, P < 0.001）和改善准入情况（10.7% vs 78.8%, P < 0.001）。2025年，神经外科劳动力充足率最低的州是内华达州（42.9%）、新泽西州（66.7%）和印第安纳州（73.3%）。到2037年，预计神经外科劳动力充足率最低的州是特拉华州（33.3%）、内华达州（37.5%）、新罕布什尔州（50.0%）和佛蒙特州（50.0%）。结论：预计神经外科劳动力存在不足，这在非大都市地区和某些美国州是最大的。未来的研究需要制定策略，提高神经外科劳动力的充分性，包括培训机会，以增加未来神经外科医生的供应。
Geographic Disparities in Neurosurgery Workforce Adequacy Across the United States: Projections to 2037.
Background and objectives: Studies on the adequacy of the neurosurgery workforce have been limited. The objectives of this study were to assess the supply, demand, and adequacy of the neurosurgery workforce in the United States.
Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of US neurosurgeons using data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model. Supply was defined as the number of full-time neurosurgeons working in the United States. Demand was defined as the number of full-time neurosurgeons needed to meet healthcare needs under status quo and improved access scenarios. Workforce adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply and demand. Linear regression was used to analyze workforce trends.
Results: From 2025 to 2037, the supply of neurosurgeons was projected to increase from 7030 to 7230 (2.8% increase, P < .001). Over the same period, demand was projected to increase under status quo (7310 to 8310, 13.7% increase, P < .001) and improved access (10 210 to 11 830, 15.9% increase, P < .001) scenarios. Accordingly, neurosurgery workforce adequacy was projected to decrease under status quo (96.2% to 87.0%, P < .001) and improved access (68.9% to 61.1%, P < .001) scenarios. In 2025, neurosurgery workforce adequacy was lower in nonmetropolitan areas compared with metropolitan areas under the status quo (30.8% vs 101%, P < .001) and improved access (10.7% vs 78.8%, P < .001) scenarios. In 2025, the states with the lowest neurosurgery workforce adequacy were Nevada (42.9%), New Jersey (66.7%), and Indiana (73.3%). By 2037, the states with the lowest projected neurological surgery workforce adequacy were Delaware (33.3%), Nevada (37.5%), New Hampshire (50.0%), and Vermont (50.0%).
Conclusion: Projected inadequacies exist for the neurosurgery workforce, which are greatest in nonmetropolitan areas and certain US states. Future research is needed to develop strategies that improve neurosurgery workforce adequacy including training opportunities to increase the supply of future neurosurgeons.
期刊介绍：
Neurosurgery, the official journal of the Congress of Neurological Surgeons, publishes research on clinical and experimental neurosurgery covering the very latest developments in science, technology, and medicine. For professionals aware of the rapid pace of developments in the field, this journal is nothing short of indispensable as the most complete window on the contemporary field of neurosurgery.
Neurosurgery is the fastest-growing journal in the field, with a worldwide reputation for reliable coverage delivered with a fresh and dynamic outlook.
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