{"title":"预测术后先天性巨结肠相关小肠结肠炎的nomogram。","authors":"Weijun Zheng, Weiming Chen, Fei Chen, Yunjin Wang, Lanxin Zhu, Mingkun Liu","doi":"10.3389/fped.2025.1640331","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To analyze the risk factors for postoperative Hirschsprung-associated enterocolitis (HAEC) and establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of HAEC.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>All patients with Hirschsprung disease who underwent definitive surgery at Fujian Provincial Children's Hospital from January 2015 to December 2023 were included in the study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of chylous ascites and a nomogram was established. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the included 204 patients, 53 patients (25.9%) experienced postoperative HAEC. Preoperative HAEC, the type of HSCR (long-segment or total colonic aganglionosis), no-preoperative bowel preparation, and anastomotic leaks or strictures were considered important risk factors. The area under the ROC curve of the model is 0.79, the nomogram has great discriminative ability, calibration and significant clinical utility.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>We found a nomogram for predicting the postoperative HAEC. It can be used as a reference for risk assessment and early detection of postoperative HAEC.</p>","PeriodicalId":12637,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Pediatrics","volume":"13 ","pages":"1640331"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12479339/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Development of a nomogram for predicting postoperative Hirschsprung-associated enterocolitis.\",\"authors\":\"Weijun Zheng, Weiming Chen, Fei Chen, Yunjin Wang, Lanxin Zhu, Mingkun Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/fped.2025.1640331\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To analyze the risk factors for postoperative Hirschsprung-associated enterocolitis (HAEC) and establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of HAEC.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>All patients with Hirschsprung disease who underwent definitive surgery at Fujian Provincial Children's Hospital from January 2015 to December 2023 were included in the study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of chylous ascites and a nomogram was established. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the included 204 patients, 53 patients (25.9%) experienced postoperative HAEC. Preoperative HAEC, the type of HSCR (long-segment or total colonic aganglionosis), no-preoperative bowel preparation, and anastomotic leaks or strictures were considered important risk factors. The area under the ROC curve of the model is 0.79, the nomogram has great discriminative ability, calibration and significant clinical utility.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>We found a nomogram for predicting the postoperative HAEC. It can be used as a reference for risk assessment and early detection of postoperative HAEC.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12637,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Frontiers in Pediatrics\",\"volume\":\"13 \",\"pages\":\"1640331\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12479339/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Frontiers in Pediatrics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2025.1640331\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PEDIATRICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Pediatrics","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2025.1640331","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PEDIATRICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Development of a nomogram for predicting postoperative Hirschsprung-associated enterocolitis.
Objectives: To analyze the risk factors for postoperative Hirschsprung-associated enterocolitis (HAEC) and establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of HAEC.
Methods: All patients with Hirschsprung disease who underwent definitive surgery at Fujian Provincial Children's Hospital from January 2015 to December 2023 were included in the study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of chylous ascites and a nomogram was established. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves.
Results: Of the included 204 patients, 53 patients (25.9%) experienced postoperative HAEC. Preoperative HAEC, the type of HSCR (long-segment or total colonic aganglionosis), no-preoperative bowel preparation, and anastomotic leaks or strictures were considered important risk factors. The area under the ROC curve of the model is 0.79, the nomogram has great discriminative ability, calibration and significant clinical utility.
Conclusion: We found a nomogram for predicting the postoperative HAEC. It can be used as a reference for risk assessment and early detection of postoperative HAEC.
期刊介绍：
Frontiers in Pediatrics (Impact Factor 2.33) publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research broadly across the field, from basic to clinical research that meets ongoing challenges in pediatric patient care and child health. Field Chief Editors Arjan Te Pas at Leiden University and Michael L. Moritz at the Children''s Hospital of Pittsburgh are supported by an outstanding Editorial Board of international experts. This multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, clinicians and the public worldwide.
Frontiers in Pediatrics also features Research Topics, Frontiers special theme-focused issues managed by Guest Associate Editors, addressing important areas in pediatrics. In this fashion, Frontiers serves as an outlet to publish the broadest aspects of pediatrics in both basic and clinical research, including high-quality reviews, case reports, editorials and commentaries related to all aspects of pediatrics.
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