Tehran’s household waste composition scenarios using a futures studies approach

Accurate data on the generation of municipal waste are essential for local governments in outlining policies for waste management. The present study aims to identify key factors influencing the generation and composition of future household waste (HW) in Tehran and to investigate their interrelationships. Accordingly, quantitative and qualitative (e.g., MICMAC software, structural analysis, and Delphi surveys) and futures studies methods were employed to find 14 affecting factors via visiting 22 specialists. Based on the cross-impact matrix analysis, “Digital Transformation and Technological Progress” and “Amending Existing Regulations, Establishing and Enforcing New and Specialized Legislation” were identified as the initial driving forces. The specialists expanded and then examined four possible scenarios for HW production in Tehran in the next 20 years. A scenario called “Metropolis” was chosen as the preferable future, as it anticipates a reduction in the entire amount of waste discarded by households, a decline in organic waste, and an increase in recyclable dry waste.